Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Biotech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 29.2 +1.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.39% -18.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,388.0 -207.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.19 -1.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.2 -.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 49.6 +3.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 79.0 -12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .94 +7.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.54 +20.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 99.19 -.36%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 479.02 +1.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 377.0 +25.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 123.18 +2.9%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 196.0 basis points +5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 135.33 +2.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 326.71 -.26%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.90 -.59%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 9,376.26 +14.0%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 37.0 basis points -3.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 60.0 basis points +8.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  137.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.71 +.92%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.42 -.50%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.58% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 7.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.55 USD/Metric Tonne +1.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -78.7 -10.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.9 +7.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.4 +.1 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.51 -4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for September 21st FOMC meeting: 62.8%(+5.9 percentage points) chance of 2.75%-3.0%. Highest target rate probability for November 2nd meeting: 48.5%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 226 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 13.0%(+1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak +13/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -79.7%(+.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +19 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +29 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long