Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• World Bank’s Reinhart Sees More Debt Distress Risks Emerging.
• Traders Price In First Ever 50 Basis-Point Hike by South Korea.
• Japan Premier Support Slips Ahead of Vote on Inflation Worries.  
• The Big Japan Short Is Back for Traders Betting Against the BOJ.
  
• Central Banks in Asia Spend Billions to Slow Currency Declines.
• Ukraine Latest: G-7 Says ‘Abominable’ Mall Attack Is a War Crime.
• G-7 to Tell Ministers to Explore Price Cap on Russian Gas.
• Stock Rally Cools in Asia as Crude Pushes Higher: Markets Wrap. 
• Oil Rises on Supply Fears, G-7 Plan for Russian Crude Price Cap.
  
• Hottest US Housing Markets Now Have Bigger Share of Price Cuts.  
• Inflation Hits July 4 Cookouts With Food Prices Up as Much as 36%.
• Nike Skids on Downbeat Guidance Driven by Cautious China Stance.

Wall Street Journal:

• United Airlines’s Inflation Warning. Pilots get a 14.5% wage increase over 18 months, as airfares spike.
• Russian Missiles Hit Ukraine Shopping Mall as G-7 Leaders Pledge More Aid.
• Live Updates: Kremlin Says Putin to Join G-20 Summit. 
• Gas Stations Now Hold Up to $175 of Your Money When You Swipe.

Fox News:

• Unrest grips blue cities as protests and acts of vandalism pop up across the country after abortion ruling.
• Kamala Harris’ post-Roe comments in CNN interview blasted on Twitter.

CNBC.com:

• Nike tops Wall Street’s expectations, despite inflation in the U.S. and Covid lockdowns in China.
• Wall Street layoffs likely ahead as two-year hiring boom turns to bust.
• Crypto fund defaults on $670M loan, and Bitfury CEO says prices aren’t ‘relevant’: CNBC Crypto World. 
  

MarketWatch:         

• Coinbase could see ‘further degradation,’ Goldman warns in downgrade.

Zero Hedge:

• Dallas Fed Plunges As Respondents Unleash Unprecedented Slamdown Of "Disastrous" Biden Administration. 
• "F**k Clarence Thomas!" Shouts Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot During Pride Parade.
• 3 Dead, At Least 50 Injured After Packed Amtrak Train Derails In Missouri.
• Far-Left Groups Use Map Created By University Professors To Target Pregnancy Centers.
• Flurry Of Calls Among Saudi Diplo Staff And Spy Coincided With 9/11 Hijackers' Arrival.
• Sri Lanka Suspends Fuel Sales Amid Economic Collapse; Asks Russians For Help.
• Activity In Tropics Emerges As Next Big Hurricane Could Send Gas Prices To "Apocalyptic" Levels.
• "The Rubicon Has Been Crossed": The BOJ Now Owns More Than 50% Of All Japanese Bonds.
• Still a bear market rally?
• US stocks were mostly pressured on the higher yield environment - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Pentagon Blasts Putin's Latest "Cavalier" Nuclear Threat.
• Robinhood Erases Gains As FTX Denies "Active" Acquisition Rumors.
• Banks Unveil Post-Stress-Test Dividend/Buyback Plans, Morgan Stanley Jumps On Boost To Both.
• Nasdaq lags as strong data and weak auctions boosts yields - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• 'Good News' Sends Stocks & Bonds Lower; Oil & Gas Prices Soar.

Newsmax:

• Russia's Medvedev: Any NATO Encroachment on Crimea Could Mean World War III.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Biden Admin Signs Five Year Lease to House Illegal Alien Children at Luxury $42K Per Year Private School Campus in North Carolina.
• “I Am Really Disappointed in FOX, I Thought You Were Better Than CNN!” – BOOM! Kari Lake INCINERATES Bret Baier and FOX News for Pushing FAKE STORY on AZ Drag Queen (VIDEO).
• New York State Supreme Court Tosses NYC Law that Allows Non-Citizens to Vote.
• Pelosi Throws Gasoline on the Fire, Labels the Supreme Court an “Extremist” Body That “Punishes” the American People.
• BREAKING: Voice Message of Joe Biden Discussing China Spy Chief with Son Hunter Proves He Lied About Not Discussing Hunter’s Foreign Business Deals.
• While US Economy Crumbles, Biden Promises $200 Billion for Solar Panels, Vaccine Plants and Communication Links Around the World.
• Rep. Mayra Flores Blasts Speaker Nancy Pelosi for Elbowing and Pushing Her Daughter.

 The Epoch Times: 

• Ian Easton: The CCP’s ‘Reengineering of the World to Spread Totalitarianism, to Spread Communism’.
• G-7 Leaders Announce $600 Billion Global Infrastructure Program to Take on Beijing’s Debt Trap Diplomacy.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 835,062 Reports(+3,252 from prior week) Through June 17th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 128.25 -2.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 77.5 +1.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.02 -.07%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,951.0 +29.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.3 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.20%.

• S&P 500 futures +.27%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.35%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• (AVAV)/.40
• (PRGS)/.95
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Advance Goods Trade Balance for May is estimated at -$105.0B versus -$106.7B in April.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for May is estimated to rise +2.1% versus a +2.2% gain in April.
• Retail Inventories MoM for May is estimated to rise +1.6% versus a +.7% gain in April.
  

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for April is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +1.5% gain in March.
• The S&P CoreLogic 20-City MoM for April is estimated to rise +1.95% versus a +2.42% gain in March.

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for June is estimated to fall to 100.0 versus 106.4 in May. 
• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for June is estimated to rise to -5 versus -9 in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (SHOP) 10-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone  Industrial Production report, GFK Consumer Confidence Germany, weekly US retail sales reports and the 7Y T-Note auction could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.