Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.25 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 48.25 -3.0 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.37 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 146.0 -18.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 32.45 -1.29%
• FTSE 100 futures +.29%.

• S&P 500 futures +.41%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.41%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (BBBY)/-.29
• (CAG)/.57
• (STZ)/2.51
• (PEP)/1.49
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Sept.
  

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 850K versus 870K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 12200K versus 12580K the prior week.
• Personal Income for Aug. is estimated to fall -2.5% versus a +.4% gain in July.
• Personal Spending for Aug. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +1.9% gain in July.
• The PCE Core MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in July.
  

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.1% gain in July.
• ISM Manufacturing for Sept. is estimated to rise to 56.4 versus a reading of 56.0 in Aug.
• ISM Prices Paid for Sept. is estimated to fall to 58.8 versus 59.5 in Aug. 

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Sept. are estimated to rise to 15.7M versus 15.19M in Aug.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Eurozone PMI report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the (TWLO) investor day could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finished modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

 

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Stimulus Hopes, US Economic Data, End-of-Quarter Window-Dressing, Healthcare/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.6 -2.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 192.0 +87.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.16 -.33%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.90 -1.0%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.9 +1.88%

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +6.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .77 -2.5%

• NYSE Arms .45 -73.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.9 -3.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 880.89 +.28%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.25 -2.4%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.41 +.24%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 228.45 -3.08%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 177.93 -.07%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 unch.

• TED Spread 13.0 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.25 +2.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  92.75 -.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 66.25 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 589.35 +.67%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .10% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 52.25 -.75 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 117.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.10%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 172.9 +4.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 47.80 -.8 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 49.3 +1.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.66 +2.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +215 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +36 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +29 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/industrial/consumer staple sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +1.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives -1.4% 2) Paper -.2% 3) Education -.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SHLL, TWST, AMSC, ANGO, SRNE, VIR, WKHS, BIG, CLDX, FMCI, WDC, MU, PRGS, PAR, EPAC, UNFI and IMXI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MU 2) BBBY 3) REGN 4) XLI 5) EFA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BTU 2) IRWD 3) DIS 4) AWI  5) MAS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

 

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers +2.7% 2) Homebuilding +2.7% 3) Airlines +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DDOG, NKLA, NOVA, KLDO, REGI, SAIL, MIK, HIBB, VSTO, SNX, CZR, DUK, WGO, PII and ELAN
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NYMT 2) DUK 3) SPR 4) TFC 5) FIT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SNX 2) GOOS 3) PENN 4) BDX 5) INFO

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

 

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -20.4% Below 100-Day Average
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 73.5% of Issues Advancing, 24.0% Declining
• 40 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 41.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 182.0 +83.0 points
• Vix 25.2 -4.0%
• Total Put/Call .80 +1.27%
• TRIN/Arms .60 -64.5%

 

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Xi Jinping’s Tech Wonderland Runs Into Headwinds.
• Cash Tidal Wave Gives Asia Best Ever Third-Quarter Share Sales.
• Gold-Buying by Central Banks Seen Climbing From Near Decade Low.
• Asia Stocks to Drift Before China Data Flurry: Markets Wrap. Asia stocks opened with modest declines as traders awaited data from China for the latest information on the strength of the recovery in the region’s largest economy. U.S. shares earlier slipped on low volumes. Shares in Tokyo and Australia edged lower, while S&P 500 e-mini futures were steady ahead of the first presidential election debate. The index declined 0.5% on Tuesday with more than two stocks falling for every one that advanced as talks on expanding aid ended for the day with plans to resume discussions Wednesday. Oil fell toward $39 a barrel in New York. Treasuries and the dollar were little changed. China markets will shut from Thursday for a week of national holidays and South Korea is closed Wednesday. S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge fell 0.5% on Tuesday. Japan’s Topix index slid 0.4%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped 1.2%.
• Oil Holds Below $40 as Concerns About Demand Recovery Increase.
  
• JPMorgan Admits Spoofing by 15 Traders, Two Desks in Record Deal.
  
• Antibody Cocktail Shows Promise; NYC Positivity Up: Virus Update.
• Apple Gives Tim Cook Up to a Million Shares That Vest Through 2025.

Wall Street Journal:

• Retail Store Closures Hit Record in First Half.
• How China Is Taking Over International Organizations, One Vote at a Time.
• The Left’s Unhealthy Interest in Amy Coney Barrett’s Adopted Kids.
• Applicants Flock to Business Schools to Ride Out Pandemic.
• Covid-19 Cases Tick Up in New York as U.S. Infections Edge Down.

Fox News:

• Biden campaign rejects Trump's call for inspector to check candidates for listening devices at debate.
• Obama admin briefed on claims Clinton amped up Russia to distract from emails.
  

CNBC.com:

• Disney to lay off 28,000 employees as coronavirus slams its theme park business.
• GM extends talks on $2 billion deal with Nikola after fraud, sexual assault allegations surface.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Micron, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals & more.
• UnitedHealth has acquired DivvyDose, a competitor to Amazon’s PillPack. 
  

MarketWatch.com:         

• Micron stock slides as weak outlook follows doubled earnings.  
• Regeneron says that trial coronavirus drug cocktail cut virus load, aided patient recovery.
  

Zero Hedge:   

• Hillary Clinton Accused Of Approving Scheme To Smear Trump With Russia Accusations.
• Vietnam Cashes In On China Exodus.
• Which Jobs Have Been Hardest Hit By The Pandemic.
• Helicopter Money And The End Of Taxes.
• 911 System Goes Down Across The Country: Was This A Test?
• "Corruption !!!" - Furious Trump Questions Why Observers Were Barred From Early Voting Sites.
• Latest Moderna Data Shows Vaccine "Safe And Effective" In Older People; NYC Positivity Rate Jumps: Live Updates.
• How Many Of These Questions Will Chris Wallace Ask Joe Biden?
• The Most Miserable Place On Earth: Disney Firing 28,000 Workers.
• Gov Cuomo Threatens To Send In National Guard To Pick Up Trash As NYC Garbage Crisis Worsens.
• Verizon Looks To Dump Unprofitable "Huffington Post" As Traffic Sags.
• WTI Rebounds Above $39 After Surprise Crude Draw.
• Jim Quinn: The Only Thing 'Systematic' Is The Destruction Of America.
• Bonds & Bullion Bid As Stocks & Dollar Skid.

The Epoch Times:

• ‘Chilling Moment’: How Beijing Pressured California Senate to Scrap Human Rights Resolution.
• China’s Largest Real Estate Developers Face Financing Crunch.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.25 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 51.25 +2.0 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.96 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 89.0 -12.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.95 +.59%
• FTSE 100 futures +.04%.

• S&P 500 futures +.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for Sept. is estimated to rise to 648K versus 428K the prior week.
  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI report for Sept. is estimated to rise to 52.0 versus 51.2 in Aug.

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +3.2% versus a +5.9% gain in July.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +465,000 barrels versus a -1,639,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,368,450 barrels versus a -4,025,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,374,360 barrels versus a -3,364,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.2% versus a -1.0% decline prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, UK GDP report, government funding deadline, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the (TOT) investor day could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by commodity and transportation shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

 

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Global 2nd Wave Virus Worries, US Election Uncertainties, Oil Decline, Energy/Transport Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.4 +.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 97.0 -59.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.57 +.82%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.1 -.08%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.9 0 -.45%

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +6.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .80 +3.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.34 +19.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.41 +3.45%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 878.50 +.1%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.17 +1.64%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 140.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.22 -1.52%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 237.41 +.78%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 178.05 -.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 13.25 -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.0 -10.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  93.25 -1.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 66.25 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.96 +.24%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.

• Yield Curve 53.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 117.85 USD/Metric Tonne +.91%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 168.2 -2.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 48.60 +.8 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 47.4 -3.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64 +2.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -20 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +86 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -16 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -3.5% 2) Airlines -3.5% 3) Gaming -2.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• NOVA, CHDN, COG, NUVA, JWN, STL, EPRT, GRAF, BCSF, SBNY, KSS, PENN, SPR, MTN, CLR, CZR, GES, EOG, SSP, NKLA, SLB, WLL, SUI, AXSM, FLXN, BEAM, ARCH, EQT and UNFI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ARMK 2) AR 3) ON 4) CZR 5) ALXN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) IVDN 2) BTU 3) NKLA 4) WPX  5) DVN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.7% 2) Alt Energy +1.6% 3) Computer Hardware +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ANGO, SRNE, IPOB, BYND, AMSC, AXNX, FRG, HGEN and PTON
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FIT 2) EMB 3) UNFI 4) TAP 5) PEP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SRNE 2) ANGO 3) AYRO 4) ASC 5) SWM

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -22.4% Below 100-Day Average
• 38 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 40.0% of Issues Advancing, 66.4% Declining
• 38 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
• 42.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.7% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 80.0 -75.0 points
• Vix 26.7 +2.0%
• Total Put/Call .67 -13.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.13 unch.

 

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.25 + basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 49.25 + basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.41 .
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index -31.0 - points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 31.95 -.%
• FTSE 100 futures +.24%.

• S&P 500 futures +.23%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.27%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (ANGO)/-.07
• (INFO)/.69
• (MKC)/1.52
  

After the Close:

• (CMTL)/.06
• (HTZ)/-3.48
• (MU)/.94
• (PRGS)/.77
• (SNX)/2.26
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Advance Goods Trade Balance report for August is estimated at -$81.7B versus -$79.2B in July.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Aug. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.3% decline in July.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a +1.2% gain in July.
  

9:00 am EST

• S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for July is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in June.

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to 90.0 versus 84.8 in Aug.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Quarles speaking, Fed's Clarida speaking, US weekly retail sales reports, Eurozone inflation data report and the China Manufacturing PMI report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

 

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -11.6% Below 100-Day Average
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 87.3% of Issues Advancing, 11.0% Declining
• 30 New 52-Week Highs, 5 New Lows
• 38.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 39.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 151.0 +60.0 points
• Vix 26.5 +.5%
• Total Put/Call .63 -27.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.35 +12.5%

Monday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.75 +6.75 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 50.5 +1.25 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.07 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 125.0 +34.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 31.10 -.40%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.28%.
• S&P 500 futures +.30%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.26%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (CALM)/-.55
• (SINA)/.50
• (THO)/1.40
• (WB)/.46
  

After the Close:

• (UNFI)/.72

Economic Releases

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Sept. is estimated at 10.0 versus 8.0 in Aug.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Mexico Trade Balance report and (BABA) investor day could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.