Wednesday, September 30, 2020

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Stimulus Hopes, US Economic Data, End-of-Quarter Window-Dressing, Healthcare/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 25.6 -2.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 192.0 +87.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.16 -.33%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.90 -1.0%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.9 +1.88%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +6.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .77 -2.5%
  • NYSE Arms .45 -73.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.9 -3.4%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 880.89 +.28%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.25 -2.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.41 +.24%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 228.45 -3.08%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 177.93 -.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 unch.
  • TED Spread 13.0 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.25 +2.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  92.75 -.5 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 66.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 589.35 +.67%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .10% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 52.25 -.75 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 117.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.10%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 172.9 +4.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 47.80 -.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 49.3 +1.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.66 +2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +215 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +36 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +29 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/industrial/consumer staple sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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