Monday, September 21, 2020

Stocks Dropping Substantially into Final Hour on US Election Uncertainty/Biden Tax Hike Proposals, Global Coronavirus Worries, Diminished US Stimulus Hopes, Commodity/Financial Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 28.7 +11.3%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index -108.0 -384.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.51 -.51%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.7 +3.4%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.5 +13.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 -14.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 102 +10.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.25 -74%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.5 (new series)
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 828 +2.21%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.5 (new series)
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 145.0 +.5 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  73.91 (new series)
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 232.73 (new series)
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 178.19 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.0 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 14.5 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 -.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  97.0 +1.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 67.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.04 -.92%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 54.5 +.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 115.23 USD/Metric Tonne -.65%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 166.1 -6.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 48.60 -21.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 49.3 -1.0 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.63 -5.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -230 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -101 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -41 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/medical/industrial/consumer staple sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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