Wednesday, September 23, 2020

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on Global Coronavirus Worries, Diminished US Stimulus Hopes, US Election Uncertainties/Biden Tax-Hike Proposals, Homebuilding/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 27.3 +1.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 121.0 -20.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.57 +.17%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.97 +2.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.5 +3.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 125.0 +28.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .78 -10.3%
  • NYSE Arms .99 -13.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.44 +7.45%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 855.09 +1.07%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.76 -1.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 136.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.06 -2.71%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 244.78 +5.31%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 178.29 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 13.25 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  95.0 -.5 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 66.5 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.31 -.82%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
  • Yield Curve 53.5 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 111.90 USD/Metric Tonne -3.13%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 164.2 -.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 47.30 -.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 49.7 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.62 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -156 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -134 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -41 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and my emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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