Thursday, September 24, 2020

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Metals & Mining/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 28.3 -.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 9.0 -17.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.54 +.14%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.3 +2.3%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.6 -3.8%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 94.0 -31.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.02 +14.6%
  • NYSE Arms .49 -57.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.10 +2.27%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 879.41 +1.89%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.60 +3.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 140.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.31 +5.79%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 241.45 -2.92%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 178.29 unch.
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 13.5 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  95.0 unch.
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 66.5 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.43 +.34%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
  • Yield Curve 53.5 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 112.90 USD/Metric Tonne +.51%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 171.6 +7.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 45.70 -1.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 49.4 -.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.59 -3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -17 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -134 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -42 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer staple sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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