Monday, February 28, 2022

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.25 +3.75 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 62.75 -3.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.63 +.08%. 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,932.0 +63.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.3 +.4%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.9%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.28%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (AZO)/17.83
  • (BIDU)/9.00
  • (DPZ)/4.29
  • (EBIX)/.72
  • (FSS)/.38
  • (HRL)/.44
  • (TWNK)/.23
  • (IGT)/.40
  • (SJM)/2.08
  • (KSS)/2.11
  • (ONON)/.00
  • (PRGO)/.56
  • (SE)/.91
  • (TGT)/2.85
  • (WEN)/.15
After the Close:
  • (AMC)/-.24
  • (BGS)/.42
  • (FSLR)/1.06
  • (HPE)/.46
  • (JAZZ)/3.63
  • (JWN)/1.03
  • (ROST)/.97
  • (CRM)/.75
  • (SGMS)/-.35
  • (URBN)/.52
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • Construction Spending for Jan. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in Dec.
  • ISM Manufacturing for Feb. is estimated to rise to 58.0 versus 57.6 in Jan. 
  • ISM Prices Paid for Feb. is estimated to rise to 77.5 versus 76.1 in Jan.
  • ISM New Orders for Feb. is estimated to fall to 56.3 versus 57.9 in Jan.
Afternoon:
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Feb. is estimated to fall to 14.45M versus 15.04M in Jan.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The State of the Union address, China Manufacturing PMI report, weekly US retail sales reports, Keefe Bruyette Woods Payments/Finance/Tech Conference, (ADT) investor day, (CVX) investor day and the (ETN) investor conference could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Diminishing Russia/Ukraine De-Escalation Hopes, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Soaring Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Financial/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line:  Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume:  Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 31.9 +15.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,735.0 -471.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.61 -1.1%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 +5.4%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 49.0 +6.8% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 +28.0
  • Total Put/Call .92 -5.2%
  • NYSE Arms 1.21 +59.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.65 +1.3%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 423.28 +2.8%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.49 +5.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 157.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.30 +2.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 292.90 +18.5%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 30.52 -.78% 
  • Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 2,934.19 +1.6%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 18.5 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 23.25 +4.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -41.5 -18.0 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  101.0 -1.0 basis point
  • iShares CMBS ETF 51.37 +.38%
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.35 -2.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .30% unch.
  • Yield Curve 41.5 +3.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 145.5 USD/Metric Tonne +5.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.1 -1.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 67.8 -4.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.4 -2.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.64 +8.0 basis points
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 136 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.0%(-1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak -23/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -79.0%(-7.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +116 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +59 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -226 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/commodity sector longs, index hedges and emerging  market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +28.4% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
  • 47.2% of Issues Advancing, 49.8% Declining
  • 55 New 52-Week Highs, 61 New Lows
  • 40.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 46.3% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,855.0 -355.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,466.0 +.5%
  • Vix 30.4 +10.2%
  • Total Put/Call .90 -7.2%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.20 +57.9%

Sunday, February 27, 2022

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:      
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:   
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
MarketWatch.com:       
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Twitter:
GETTR: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.25 +5.75 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 66.25 +6.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.45 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,188.0 -20.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.8 +9.2%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -2.74%.
  • S&P 500 futures -1.8%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -1.9%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (ASTE)/.03
  • (WHD)/.20
  • (EXC)/.78
  • (ITRI)/.19
  • (JLL)/6.81
  • (RIDE)/-.75
  • (MCFE)/.28
After the Close:
  • (DDD)/.04
  • (AMBA)/.42
  • (BLNK)/-.41
  • (GDRX)/.01
  • (GRPN)/.22
  • (HPQ)/1.02
  • (TREX)/.53
  • (WDAY)/.71
  • (ZM)/1.07
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Advance Goods Trade Balance for Jan. is estimated at -$99.3B versus -$100.5B in Dec.
  • Wholesale Inventories MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.3% versus a +2.2% gain in Dec.
  • Retail Inventories MoM for Jan.
9:45 am EST
  • The MNI Chicago PMI for Feb. is estimated to fall to 62.3 versus 65.2 in Jan.
10:30 am EST
  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to 2.5 versus 2.0 in Jan.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Non-Manufacturing PMI and the BMO Metals&Mining Conference could also impact trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, February 26, 2022

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (GLD), (GT), (DE), (KMX), (AQUA), (AWK), (STZ), (JWN) and (IAU).

Fox News: 

CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
MarketWatch.com:      
TheGatewayPundit.com: 
The Epoch Times:
Twitter:
GETTR:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):