Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Russia/Ukraine Dialogue Hopes, Weak Sanctions on Russia, Declining European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Financial/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.96 -11.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,244.0 +422.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.02 +.63%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.1 -4.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.9 -6.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 unch.
  

• Total Put/Call 1.0 -.99%

• NYSE Arms 1.10 +1.85%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.54 -4.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 410.48 -4.2%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.38 -7.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 160.0 -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.41 +1.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 246.31 -8.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 30.79 -.06% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 1,041.31 +15.5%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.75 +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 18.75 -3.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.5 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  102.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.03 -.47%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.40 -1.63%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .30% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 37.75 +.75 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 137.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 41.8 +10.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 72.6 +8.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.5 -.7 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.56 -4.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 159 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 9.0%(-1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak -11/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -72.0%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +390 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +83 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/medical/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 100% Net Long