Tuesday, February 01, 2022

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Diminishing Global Lockdown/Mandate Fears, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Commodity/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume:  Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.5 -5.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,236.0 +98.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.97 -.23%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.3 -1.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 39.8 -2.4% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 84.0  -4.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .92 -12.4%
  • NYSE Arms .76 -25.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.4 -1.3%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 406.71 -2.1%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.76 -2.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 138.0 +10.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.18 -.04%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 212.32 +.03%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.71 +.32% 
  • Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 770.99 -2.2%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 15.5 unch.
  • TED Spread 10.5 -3.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.75 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  87.0 +3.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 74.75 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.47 +.04%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .20% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 60.5 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 138.90 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.4 +1.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 46.7 -4.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.70 -1.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.46 +1.0 basis point
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 983 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 57.0%(-6.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -105/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -20.8%(-3.1 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -18 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +121 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -18 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/commodity/transport sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure:  75% Net Long

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