Stocks Reversing Substantially Lower into Afternoon on Escalating Russia/Ukraine Tensions, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.7 +12.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,579.0 -220.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.77 -1.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.02 +1.12%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.2 +9.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 -17.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .96 +10.3%

• NYSE Arms .96 -1.03%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.0 +4.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 419.76 +3.9%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 75.69 +2.9%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 166.0 +5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.49 +2.52%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 225.66 +5.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.64 +.02% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 862.93 +16.4%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.0 +2.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 3.25 -4.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.5 -1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  97.5 +4.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.25 +.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.50 -.46%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .34% -3.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 57.25 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 146.25 USD/Metric Tonne -4.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.1 +2.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 47.1 -.6 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.3 +3.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 -1.0 basis point
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 472 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 27.0%(-2.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -27/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -44.0%(-2.7 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +19 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -51 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -177 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my commodity sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them
  

• Market Exposure:  25% Net Long