Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Diminishing Russia/Ukraine De-Escalation Hopes, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Soaring Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Financial/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 31.9 +15.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,735.0 -471.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.61 -1.1%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 +5.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 49.0 +6.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 +28.0
  

• Total Put/Call .92 -5.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.21 +59.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.65 +1.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 423.28 +2.8%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.49 +5.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 157.0 -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.30 +2.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 292.90 +18.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 30.52 -.78% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 2,934.19 +1.6%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.5 -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 23.25 +4.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -41.5 -18.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  101.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.37 +.38%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.35 -2.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .30% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 41.5 +3.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 145.5 USD/Metric Tonne +5.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.1 -1.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 67.8 -4.8 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.4 -2.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.64 +8.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 136 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.0%(-1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak -23/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -79.0%(-7.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +116 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +59 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -226 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/commodity sector longs, index hedges and emerging  market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long