Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Escalating Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 24.0 +8.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,388.0 +6.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.44 +1.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.2 -.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 38.60 +16.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 83.0  -2.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.07 +11.5%

• NYSE Arms .87 -13.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.64 +5.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 403.41 +.71%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.24 +7.8%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 150.0 +11.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.55 -.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 210.50 +2.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.69 +.05% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 741.11 +1.4%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 16.5 +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 11.5 -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  86.5 +.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.25 +.5 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.42 -.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .19% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 63.0 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 145.35 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.3 +1.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 58.10 -8.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.10 +.5 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 -3.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 822 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 48.0%(-6.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -102/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -22.7%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -136 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +157 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -15 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my industrial/commodity/tech/transport sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, took profits in my transport longs
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long