Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Russian/Ukraine War Fears, Less Dovish Fed Commentary, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Worries, Telecom/Medical Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 28.5 +1.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,100.0 -75.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.15 -.20%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.0 -1.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.3 +2.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 82.0 -7.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.17 +10.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.12 -7.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.11 +2.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 431.29 +.76%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.71 +3.1%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 165.0 +5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.38 +.95%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 227.40 +2.99%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.35 +.32% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 901.33 +10.4%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.75 -1.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 15.0 +2.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.0 -3.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  101.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.40 +.1%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.57 -.29%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .33% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 50.25 -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 132.55 USD/Metric Tonne +3.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 16.2 +3.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 42.8 -2.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 35.5 +1.0 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 -2.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 258 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 15.0%(-2.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -25/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -56.0%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -182 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -44 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long