Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Russia/Ukraine War Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Concerns, Retail/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.1 +1.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,483.0 +12.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.36 +.07%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.0 -1.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.7 -1.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 128.0 +7.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .94 +2.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.02 +21.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.74 +1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 423.99 +.86%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 74.62 -.04%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 163.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.03 -1.29%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 216.15 -.52%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.32 +.03% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 816.26 -3.5%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.5 +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 6.75 -4.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  100.0 +1.75 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.18 -.10%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.76 +.20%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .36% -3.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 47.25 +5.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 136.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.6 +17.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 44.0 +2.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.2 +1.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.49 -1.0 basis point
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 310 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 18.0%(-3.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -49/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -56.0%(-.9 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -35 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +36 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +6 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long