Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Russia/Ukraine War Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Concerns, Energy/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 31.6 +15.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,050.0 -402.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.18 -.61%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.5 +3.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 48.4 +8.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 83.0 +5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.10 -2.7%

• NYSE Arms 1.03 +27.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.86 -.04%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 425.28 +.4%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.5 +1.1%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 169.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.86 +4.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 225.03 +2.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.46 -.68% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 967.94 +12.2%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 16.75 +13.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.0 -1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  97.5 +4.5 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.31 -.33%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.36 -.13%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .36% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 42.25 -15.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 141.85 USD/Metric Tonne -4.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.2 -3.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 45.5 -1.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.4 -.9 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.51 +6.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 403 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 23.0%(-4.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -69/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -55.1%(-11.1 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -90 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -22 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -101 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  25% Net Long