Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on Russia/Ukraine War Fears, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Concerns, Less Dovish Fed Commentary, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.2 +7.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,307.0 -265.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.50 -.55%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.1 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 42.0 +6.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 84.0 -42.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.05 +10.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.09 -23.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.72 +2.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 425.16 +1.5%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.41 +2.4%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 160.0 -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.44 +.39%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 218.90 +2.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.28 -.06% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 901.33 +10.4%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.5 +1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 12.25 +5.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 -1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  100.0 +1.75 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.35 +.23%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.72 -.16%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .34% -2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 51.25 +4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 125.80 USD/Metric Tonne -6.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.9 +2.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 45.0 +1.0 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.5 +.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.46 -3.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 283 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 17.0%(-1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak -27/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -56.0%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -173 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -36 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -55 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long