Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, Technical Selling, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.6 +18.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,801.0 -144.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.76 +.62%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 -1.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 40.2 +13.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 119.0  unch.
  

• Total Put/Call .78 -14.3%

• NYSE Arms .64 -7.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.42 +4.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 402.37 +1.4%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.58 +3.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 161.0 +6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.24 -1.65%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 214.11 +2.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.56 +.64% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 742.62 +.7%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.5 +1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 7.5 -1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.0 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  93.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.82 +.25%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .37% +10.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 57.25 -5.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 155.55 USD/Metric Tonne +3.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.7 +3.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 47.7 -.6 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.3 +1.0 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.46 +2.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 499 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 29.0%(-2.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -36/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -41.3%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -266 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +66 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -93 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long