Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Optimism, Short-Covering, Commodity/Airline Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.8 -2.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,710.0 +87.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.48 -.31%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.2 +.55%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 39.0 -1.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 103.0  -1.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call .93 -2.1%

• NYSE Arms .74 +13.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.77 +1.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 406.79 +.01%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 75.27 +3.4%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 155.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.32 +5.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 217.07 +.47%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.5 -.1% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 779.57 +1.4%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.5 +1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 11.5 +2.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.25 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  89.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.0 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.38 -.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .21% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 62.25 +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 151.1 USD/Metric Tonne +3.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.1 -2.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 47.7 -5.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.30 -1.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 +1.0 basis point
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 640 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 37.0%(-7.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -115/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -35.4%(-7.1 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -92 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +2 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my commodity/tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long