Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Earnings Optimism, Short-Covering, Energy/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.2 -4.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,645.0 +300.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.95 +.32%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.2 -.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 39.40 -5.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 97.0  +14.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .95 -12.8%

• NYSE Arms .55 -47.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.46 +2.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 403.11 -.32%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.89 +3.8%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 154.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.75 +2.44%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 215.82 +2.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.54 -.05% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 769.06 +1.2%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.0 +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 9.0 -2.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  88.0 +1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.25 +.5 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.36 -.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .21% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 61.25 -1.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 144.85 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.6 +.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 53.10 -5.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.40 +.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 -3.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 755 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 44.0%(-4.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -67/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -28.3%(-5.7 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -100 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +195 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +87 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my commodity/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some  of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long