Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:       

• U.S. ‘Acquiesced’ to China in Asia Seas, Australia Minister Says.
• China May Need to Rebuild Its Oil Stockpiles, Says Vitol.
• Big China-Backed London Development on Brink of Collapse.
• China Stocks Poised for Muted Reopen After Hong Kong’s Surge. 
• India Watching Global Inflationary Developments, Sitharaman Says.
• Asian Bonds Lose Appeal as Region Seen Last to Boost Rates.  
• Europe’s Era of Negative-Yielding Debt Is Coming to an End.
• ECB’s Knot Sees Interest-Rate Hike as Early as October.
• France Coal-Fired Power Plants Get Short-Term Right to Burn More.   
• U.S. Futures Steady, Stocks Set for Cautious Start: Markets Wrap
• Yellen Says ‘No Plans to Leave’ With Goals Far From Accomplished.
  
• Goodbye Easy Money as Hawkish Central Banks Speed Up Rate Hikes.
  
• U.S. Inflation Is Probably About to Spike Yet Again.
• Redistricting Is Taking the Swing Out of Swing States.  
• Joe Manchin Predicts Passage for U.S. Electoral Reform Act.  
• U.S. Inflation Is Probably About to Spike Yet Again: Eco Week.   
• Peloton Purchase May Pose Regulatory ‘Headache’ for a Tech Giant.  
• Postal Service Says It Could Buy More EVs If Congress Funded It.

Wall Street Journal:

• Worker Absences Hold Back Companies’ Growth.
• A Big Tech Trade Is Losing Its Luster.
• Why Colleges Don’t Care About Free Speech. It’s incentives more than ideology, and there’s a simple fix.
• A Uyghur Skier Became Face of Winter Olympics. The Next Day, She Vanished From the Spotlight.
• Cuomo Plans Comeback Months After Sexual-Harassment Claims.
• U.S. Readies New Asia-Pacific Economic Strategy to Counter China.
• Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities: What Investors Should Know About TIPS.

Fox News:    

• Canadian trucker: We're not giving in until mandates are gone.
• GoFundMe's past tweet comes back to haunt them after $10M trucker fund freeze raises scrutiny.
• Canadian protesters say no 'hatred' or violence here, they'll be reported to police: 'All on same page'.
• Canadian man drives SUV through group of Freedom Convoy protesters, injuring 4.
• Coach minces no words with harsh accusation against China.   
• AOC scolds both Sinema, Biden in call for 'brass tacks' approach to progressive agenda.
• AOC tells Schumer to make Sinema's life 'as difficult as possible'.
• Another Dem caught maskless as students forced to wear face coverings.
• Comedian collapses on stage, fractures skull after declaring she’s triple vaxxed.

CNBC:

• How much Americans are planning to spend on Valentine’s Day.
• Russian forces at 70% of level needed for full Ukraine invasion, U.S. officials say.
• Thousands protest vaccine mandates in Canada, further fraying nerves.
• Wall Street’s top analysts are bullish on these five stocks amid the market’s turbulence.

Zero Hedge:

• "This Is A Nationwide Insurrection" - Ottawa Mayor Declares 'State Of Emergency' Amid Trucker Convoy 'Occupation'.
• "We Don't See That Very Often" - Credit Market Cracks Could Spark Doom-Loop With Stocks
• Visualizing The State Of Global Debt, By Country.
• Morgan Stanley: "It Begins".
• Russia Might Invade Ukraine "As Soon As Tomorrow": White House.
• Lukashenko Vows Belarus Will Fight By Russia's Side If Ukraine War Starts.
• Driver Pay-Hikes Continue To Roll In.
• CNN's Collapse Is Now Complete.
• Ford Shutters 8 Factories Due To "Persistent Supply Chain Disruptions".
• $30 Trillion In Debt Means Ignore All The Talk: Central Bankers Are Only Pretending To Lean Against Inflation.
• Meta Unveils 'Personal Safety Bubble' After Metaverse's Dark Side Exposed.
• 2022 Could Be "Even Crazier" Than 2021 For Supply Chains.
• Rogan Apologizes For Using Racial Slur As Spotify Removes 113 'JRE' Episodes With No Explanation. 
• Goldman: For The First Time In 2022, We See Massive Net Inflows Into Stocks This Week.
• BLS Job Revisions Show Every Job Report In 2021 Was Total Garbage.
• Pipeline Politics Hits Multipolar Realities: Nord Stream 2 & The Ukraine Crisis.
• Manhattan Retail Rents Plunge Without Office Workers, Tourists.
• Russia Planning Nuclear War Drills As 'Warning' To West Over Ukraine: Pentagon.
• Are Secret "Puppeteers" Still Directing American Public Policy.
• Saturday Satire: Trudeau Vows To Break Biden's Record For Consecutive Days Hiding In The Basement.
• FAA Grants FOIA Request To College Kid Who Tracks Elon Musk's Private Jet.
• This Is The Worst Earnings Season Since Covid Emerged And It's About To Get Much Worse.

MarketWatch.com:       

• The next ‘pain trade’ could be on the horizon as investors crowd into bets pegged to Fed monetary policy.
  
• Opinion: $1.4 trillion? Big Tech’s pandemic year produces mind-boggling financial results.
  
• Opinion: 12 biotech stocks to consider buying now as prospects for the sector brighten this year.

NewsMax:

• US Troops Arrive in Poland to Reinforce Eastern Europe Allies.
• Russia Invasion Would Cost 50,000 Ukrainian Casualties Within Days.
• Biden National Security Adviser: Russian Invasion of Ukraine May Be Imminent. 
• Pompeo: Biden Betrayed Trump's 'Deterrence Model'.  
• Fred Fleitz: China, Russia Alliance 'Incredibly Dangerous'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Ukraine Becomes the Second Military Joe Biden Arms with US Weapons behind the $80 Billion He Supplied to the Taliban in Afghanistan. 
• Bill Maher: “I’m Just Asking, How Much Wrong Do You Get to Be While Still Holding the Default Setting for People Who Represent ‘The Science'” (VIDEO).
• The Democrat Plan to Steal the 2022 Election Was Built Around Obama’s Corrupt AG’s Nationwide Redistricting Effort Knowing Republicans Would Fold.
• “We Failed” – Danish Newspaper Admits Failure and Apologizes for Not Questioning the Government’s COVID-19 Narrative (VIDEO). 
• Business Down 40% at Restaurants in Minneapolis “Over Night” After Democrat Mayor Imposes Vaccine Passport System (VIDEO).
• FOX News Host Compares Tactics of Tech Giants Like GoFundMe and Facebook to Communist Chinese after Fascist Facebook Blocks Trucker Convoy Pages.
• Burner Phones, Clandestine Meetings, and Difficult Secrets: Dr. Malone Calls Out How Dr. Fauci and Other Public Health ‘Experts’ Covered Up Crucial Covid Information in the Beginning of the Pandemic – (VIDEO).
• Democrats Are Quietly Building A Gun Registry As A First Step In Gun Ban.
• RINO Lindsey Graham Pushes Legislation to Allow Private Companies to Read All Your Phone Texts, Emails and DMs.
• DC School Makes Masked Kindergarten Students March With BLM Signs While Chanting Black Lives Matter (VIDEO).
• Send In the Cavalry! Hundreds of Cowboys on Horseback Join Freedom Convoy Protesters at Coutts Crossing in Alberta.
• WATCH: Fed Up Virginia Mother Rips Apart School Board for ‘Segregating Children’ Based on Vaccine Status, Despite Requiring Masks.
• Trump on Democrat’s Ballot Harvesting Scam: The Biggest Political Scandal in History — Democrats Are Doing All They Can to Stop the News from Coming Out!

The Epoch Times:

• Microsoft, Intel, GE Provide ‘Direct Support’ to Chinese Military, State Security Bodies: Report.
• China, Russia, Iran Pose Rising Threats to US, Free World: Experts.

Twitter:

• @BeachLife7 - The so called Canadian "insurrection". (video) THE NETHERLANDS BEGINS THEIR TRUCKER CONVOY. (video) Stunning drone footage from the protest in Paris, France yesterday. (video)
• @risemelbourne -  NZ The Insanity Continues Jacinda says " The side effects are an indication that the WAX is doing what it should..." The Narrative is Imploding. (video)
• @Truckers4Freedm - Shall we do this? Lets do this friends, Officers in Ottawa stealing fuel like a low life criminal. They think we are flower power and nice so that we won't watch them. Guess again buster, you are on camera an the whole twitter world will see it and will take you to courts. (video) More riot police in ottawa and bombardiers with big guns, guns for what there was no crime being done except pissing off some people. (video)

GETTR: 

• @DiscloseTV - NEW - Mask-free Obama did not look happy in photos snapped of him as he spoke with the masked construction crew of his new multimillion-dollar Hawaii mansion.
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 747,759 Reports(+7,760 from prior week) Through January 28, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.75% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.25 +2.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 51.5 +1.25 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.38 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,653.0 +30.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.12 -.11%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.55%.
• S&P 500 futures -.07%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.14%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (AMG)/5.81
• (ENR)/.94
• (HAS)/.88
• (ON)/.94
• (TSN)/1.93
• (ZBH)/1.98
  

After the Close:

• (AMGN)/4.05
• (CHGG)/.31
• (RMBS)/.37
• (TTWO)/1.19
• (THC)/1.49

Economic Releases

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Dec. is estimated to fall to $23.4B versus $39.99B in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Services PMI report could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.