Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:      

• Russians Rush for Dollars as Sanctions Threaten Ruble Collapse.  
• Sberbank Europe Probably Can’t Pay Debts on Time, ECB Says.
• Russia 'Frustrated' by Slow Progress Against Tough Ukrainian Resistance.  
• Does Putin's Military Order Raise the Risk of Nuclear War?   
• Ukraine to Hold Talks With Russia on Border With Belarus.  
• EU Proposes Sanctions on Some of Russia’s Wealthiest Tycoons.
  
• EU Discusses Sanctions on Tycoons; Dollar Surges: Ukraine Update.
• Japan’s Output Falls as Supply Snags Add to Contraction Risk.
  
• China’s Stimulus Fails to Jolt Construction in Blow to Economy.
• Dollar Surges Versus Almost Everything on Ukraine Conflict Risks.  
• Bitcoin, Ether Slide as Ukraine Conflict Spurs Risk-Asset Flight.
• U.S. Futures Sink, Oil Up as West Isolates Russia: Markets Wrap.
• Gold Surges as Ukraine Conflict, Western Sanctions Boosts Haven.  
• Energy Firms Snap Up Russian Gas as Europe Seeks Alternatives.
  
• Oil Jumps as More Sanctions on Russia Spur Energy Crisis Fears.  
• Treasury Yields Slide as Ukraine Risks Turbocharge Haven Demand.   
• SWIFT Ban Means the Fed May Need to Be Ready With Dollars   
• U.S. Advises Citizens to Consider Leaving Russia Immediately.  
• Million-Dollar Home Listings Dry Up for Wealthy Suburban Buyers.  
• Prices Rise So Fast That Firms Can’t Keep Up, Fed Survey Shows.

Wall Street Journal:

• Ukrainian Forces Hold Kyiv as Talks With Russia Are Planned.
• U.S. Looks to Make China Pay for Close Ties to Russia.
• Car Parts, Chips, Sunflower Oil: Russia’s War in Ukraine Threatens New Shortages.
• Ukraine Crisis Upends Investing Playbook for 2022.
• How Zelensky and Putin Are Using Online Media in the War for Ukraine.
• Thousands of Russians Protest Invasion of Ukraine.
• In Manhattan’s ‘Little Ukraine,’ People Gather to Denounce Russian Invasion, Find Solace.
• Supreme Court to Hear Case That Could Hobble Biden’s Global Warming Approach.
• Investors Bet Oil Still Has Room to Run After Touching $100. 
• Putin Gambles That the West Is Weak. Both militarily and culturally, we’ve been derelict in our duty to defend our civilization. 
• Ukraine Leads the World. The brave resistance to Putin is an inspiration and lesson to the world.
• High Food Prices to Pressure Inflation This Year.

Fox News:   

• Expert says Vladimir betting on innocent lives using psychological warfare but points out one problem.
• PHOTOS: DC protesters express support for Ukrainians, call for tougher sanctions.
• Biden admin dismisses calls to increase oil production at home as prices soar.
• Why Putin raised alert for largest stockpile of nuclear warheads: GOP.

CNBC:

• Ukraine hospitals could run out of oxygen in 24 hours as war disrupts health services, WHO says.
• Germany announces major defense policy shift in face of Russia’s Ukraine invasion.
• New York City to lift vaccination mandate for businesses, events.

Zero Hedge:

• EU Provides $500 Million To Buy Arms For Ukraine; Turkey Readies Closure Of Straits To Russian Navy.
• Pozsar Warns Of Another "Lehman Weekend" As Russia Sanctions May Trigger Central Bank Liquidity Flood.
• Russian Propaganda Playbook Extends To 'Dirty Bomb' Threats. 
• All Hell Breaks Loose As Global Markets Open: Stocks Crash, Oil & Gold Surge.
• Russia Central Bank Bans Selling Of Russian Securities By Foreigners.
• Belarus' Lukashenko Says West Is Pushing Russia Into "Third World War".
• Weekend worries.
• UN Reports 368,000 Ukrainian Refugees Have Fled War-Torn Country.
• Kiev Mayor Says City Now "Fully Surrounded, Under Siege" Making Evacuation Impossible.
• "I'm In Shock": Russians Scramble To Pull Money From ATMs As Bank Runs Begin.
• OPEC+ Likely To Stand By Plans To Only "Gradually" Increase Production, Despite Crude Volatility.
• In "Unacceptable Escalation", Putin Orders "Nuclear Deterrence" Forces On Alert.
• The CDC Discovers Actual Public Health, Just In Time.
• Russian Forces Slowed By Strong Ukrainian Resistance, Officials Say.
• ECB's Lagarde Urges Immediate Crypto Regulation To Stop Putin Evading Sanctions.
• "Bring Only A Passport" - Ukraine Removes Age Limits To Enlist In Army As Fighting Intensifies.
• Chernobyl Is Now A War Zone: What Could Go Wrong?
• Elite Capture.
• New Zealand High Court: Vaccine Mandate Not "Demonstrably Justified", Breach Of Rights.
• Workers At Starbucks Cafe In Mesa Vote To Unionize In Latest Threat To Corporate Profits.
• The Clinton Campaign's Two-Pronged Plan To Create The Trump–Russia Collusion Narrative.
• LA Is Spending Up To $837,000 Per Unit To House The Homeless.

MarketWatch.com:       

• In major shift for Europe, Germany to spend $113B on defense.  
• BP to Exit 20% Stake in Russia’s Rosneft.

NewsMax:

• Pentagon: Putin's Nuclear Alert Makes Ukraine Situation 'Much, Much More Dangerous'. 
• Russian Forces Appear to Shift to Siege Warfare in Ukraine.
• Volunteers Extend Help to Thousands of Refugees from Ukraine.
• Two of Russia's Billionaires Call for Peace in Ukraine.  
• Ukraine Vows No 'Capitulation' at Talks, Putin Orders Nuclear Alert.  
• US Embassy: US Nationals Should Leave Russia 'Immediately'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• WATCH: Rising GOP Star Kari Lake Tells Tyrants To “SHOVE IT” During CPAC Speech, Crowd Reacts: “USA, USA, USA”. 
• Biden Approval Drops to 37 Percent in ABC-WaPo Poll. 
• New York State to Lift Mask Mandate For Schools March 2 – One Day After Biden’s SOTU Address.
• Trump Calls on Republicans to Launch Select Committee to Investigate Hunter Biden and Biden Family Corruption (VIDEO).
• Psaki Says Biden Wants to Reduce Our Dependence on Foreign Oil by Using Green Energy (VIDEO).
• Macomb County Nursing Home Employee Sentenced to Jail for Forging Signatures of Mentally Disabled on Absentee Ballot Applications.
• US Secret Service Claims it CAN’T FIND Three Years Worth of Hunter Biden’s Travel Records After Agency Made “Extensive, Inappropriate Redactions” to Docs Produced Last Month.
• ‘The People’s Convoy’ SWELLS to Over 1,000 Vehicles as Truckers Pass Through Texas (VIDEOS).
• EXCLUSIVE: THE BIDENS’ UKRAINIAN BLOOD MONEY – What the U.S. Government and Mainstream Media Hid from the Public.
• Did Joe Biden Take the Weekend Off? There Is No Evidence He Has a SCIF at His Delaware Home that Is Needed for Intelligence Briefings.

The Epoch Times:

• China, US Flex Military Muscles Near Taiwan Amid Ukraine Crisis.

Twitter:

• @aginnt - This weekend in Vienna against COVID law. (video)
• @IntelCrab - The bank runs begin. Long lines in #Moscow for ATM withdrawals. (video)

GETTR: 

• @DiscloseTV - JUST IN - Belarus abandons its non-nuclear status. Constitutional "referendum" approved by majority, proclaims the Central Election Commission.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 767,082 Reports(+6,981 from prior week) Through February 18, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.25 +5.75 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 66.25 +6.5 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.45 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,188.0 -20.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.8 +9.2%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -2.74%.
• S&P 500 futures -1.8%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.9%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (ASTE)/.03
• (WHD)/.20
• (EXC)/.78
• (ITRI)/.19
• (JLL)/6.81
• (RIDE)/-.75
• (MCFE)/.28
  

After the Close:

• (DDD)/.04
• (AMBA)/.42
• (BLNK)/-.41
• (GDRX)/.01
• (GRPN)/.22
• (HPQ)/1.02
• (TREX)/.53
• (WDAY)/.71
• (ZM)/1.07
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Advance Goods Trade Balance for Jan. is estimated at -$99.3B versus -$100.5B in Dec.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.3% versus a +2.2% gain in Dec.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Jan.
  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for Feb. is estimated to fall to 62.3 versus 65.2 in Jan.

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to 2.5 versus 2.0 in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Non-Manufacturing PMI and the BMO Metals&Mining Conference could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.