Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Russia/Ukraine War Fears, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Worries, Fed "Behind the Curve" Concerns, Consumer Discretionary/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 29.8 +7.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,001.0 -116.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.44 +.58%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.2 +1.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 47.4 +1.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 +18.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.04 -11.1%

• NYSE Arms .87 -20.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.18 +.32%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 428.15 -.63%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.86 -2.1%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 168.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.12 +2.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 229.75 -.18%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.40 +.19% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 1,041.31 +15.5%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 14.5 -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.5 -1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  106.0 +5.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.29 -.14%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.45 +.12%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .34% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 41.0 -9.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 135.95 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.7 +15.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 67.2 +24.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.4 +1.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.47 +3.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 189 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 11.0%(-4.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -69/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -69.6%(-13.6 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +296 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +29 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  25% Net Long