Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, Escalating European Debt Angst, Utility/Medical Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 32.5 -4.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.42% -31.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,528.0 -54.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.71 +.54%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 13.2 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 51.0 -.22% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 94.0 +12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.02 -23.3%

• NYSE Arms .75 -72.73%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 99.5 +1.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 414.0 +6.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 357.0 +34.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 122.0 +3.9%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 242.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.75 +1.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 328.47 -.42%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.2 -.21%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 5,922.51 -.21%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 35.5 basis points -3.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 10.75 basis points -19.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.25 basis points -2.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  137.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.28 +.54%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.70 -.18%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.72% +47.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 4.25 basis points (2s/10s) -4.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 132.9 USD/Metric Tonne -2.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -46.0 -1.0 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 34.5 -.8 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.4 +.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.63 -13.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at September 21st meeting

US Covid-19:

• 226 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 13.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -2/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -80.3%(+1.7 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -234 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -93 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -51 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/commodity sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to Market Neutral