Friday, June 07, 2019

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Fed Rate Cut Hopes, Diminished China/Mexico Tariff Worries, Oil Gain, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.57 +2.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.39 +.34%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.70 +.69%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 39.1 +2.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 108.0 +89.5%
  • Total Put/Call .73 -14.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.24 +44.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.87 -.83%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 621.0 -.64%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.79 -4.76%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 261.25 -11.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.03 -1.43%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 197.85 -1.33%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 163.45 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.75 +1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 17.75 +3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.61 +.22%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.26% -5.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 23.5 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 95.25 USD/Metric Tonne -.26%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -56.40 -9.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.2 -6.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -31.20 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.75 unch.
  • 86.4% chance of Fed rate cut at July 31st meeting, 96.3% chance of cut at Sept. 18th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +171 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +110 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech/retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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