Monday, June 10, 2019

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Diminished Mexico Tariff Fears, China Trade Deal Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.2 -.61%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.54 +.12%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.49 -2.41%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.76 -1.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 +26.7%
  • Total Put/Call .79 unch.
  • NYSE Arms 1.21 -14.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.58 -3.18%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 619.0 -.27%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.61 -4.02%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 257.75 -3.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.84 -3.14%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 194.54 -1.72%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 163.49 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.5 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 19.5 +1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.25 -2.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.70 +.10%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.27% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 24.5 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 97.70 USD/Metric Tonne +.55%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -56.0 +.4 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -24.3 +.9 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -28.40 +3.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.74 -1.0 basis point
  • 77.1% chance of Fed rate cut at July 31st meeting, 94.3% chance of cut at Sept. 18th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -24 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +43 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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