Thursday, June 13, 2019

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Less Eurozone Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Oil Gain, Commodity/Retail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.9 -.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.91 -.25%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.41 +.48%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.87 -2.19%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 79.0 -10.2%
  • Total Put/Call .87 -9.38%
  • NYSE Arms .89 -30.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.59 -1.26%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 628.0 +1.77%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.79 -.32%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 259.75 -7.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.56 +.42%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 191.16 -.79%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 163.58 -.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 2.75 -2.25 basis pionts
  • TED Spread 25.0 +5.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 -1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.58 -.07%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.18% -4.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 26.25 +2.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.20 USD/Metric Tonne +2.17%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -59.70 -7.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -20.4 +5.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -23.70 +4.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.69 -2.0 basis points
  • 87.0% chance of Fed rate cut at July 31st meeting, 97.8% chance of cut at Sept. 18th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -52 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -60 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -11 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/biotech/retail/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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