Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Trump Hints at More Details; Mexico Still Baffled by Farm Claim. 

• Mnuchin Says Trade Talk With PBOC's Yi Gang Was Constructive.

• Mexico Deal Puts Peso in Play While Global Trade Worries Persist.

• World Economy's Guardians Signal Readiness to Cushion Trade Risk.  

• Italy Confident of Complying With Europe Fiscal Rules, Tria Says.

• Hong Kong Choked by Protest; Organizer Says Total Tops 1 Million.   

• Asia Stocks Set to Gain, Yen Drops on Mexico News. Asia stocks looked set for gains Monday and U.S. equity futures climbed after President Donald Trump suspended his plans for tariffs on Mexico. The Mexican peso jumped the most in almost a year. Japanese and Australian equity futures rose along with those on the S&P 500 Index after the U.S.-Mexico agreement that was unveiled late Friday. The Japanese yen slid and crude oil climbed. Investor attention on the trade front may now focus on China, with the “main progress” in U.S.-China talks reliant on Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit late this month, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said. Treasury yields will open near recent lows after a weak U.S. jobs report bolstered bets on Federal Reserve easing. Nikkei 225 futures rose 1%. Australia’s SPI 200 futures rose 0.5%. Hang Seng futures fell 0.2% earlier. S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%.

• Most Mideast Markets Rise as Traders Return to Desks: Inside EM.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• The 2020 Oil Market Is Quickly Turning Ugly.

• Investors Seeking Clues Get Fresh Global Insight: Economy Week.

Wall Street Journal:

• Massive Crowds Take to Streets in ‘Last Fight’ for Hong Kong.

• Medicaid Expansion has Louisianans Dropping Their Private Plans.

• For Trump, Threats Become Part of Diplomatic Playbook.

• Top U.S., Chinese Officials Break the Ice on Trade.

• Merger Would Create New Aerospace Giant.

Fox News:

• Ocasio-Cortez wants to use federal money to study magic mushrooms, other psychedelic drugs.

• Family reveals 4th American died recently in Dominican Republic, after drink from minibar.

CNBC:

• Trump is ‘perfectly happy’ to hit China with new tariffs if Xi meeting doesn’t go well, Mnuchin says.

• Once shunned, activist investors are now seeing a ‘wave of change’ in Japan.

• These stocks may be winners as the globalization trend reverses.

• Big tech’s antitrust fears give investors a rare chance to buy Facebook, Amazon on the cheap.

• The last time the S&P did this, it rallied 25% to an all-time high.

Zero Hedge:      

• The Trust Project: Big Media And Silicon Valley's Weaponized Algos Silence Dissent.

• Goldman Now Expects The Yuan To Drop Below 7 For The First Time Since The Financial Crisis.

• "Last Fight For Hong Kong": Over 1 Million March In Protests Against China Extradition Bill.

• Dying Inmate Admits To Killing 93 Women; Would Be Most Prolific Serial Killer In US History.

• Mexican Deal Confusion: Trump Doubles Down On Farm Purchase Claim, Mexico Denies.

• The ECB Continues To Incentivize Reckless Behavior.

• Germany Slides Towards Instability.

• "Nervous Nancy" Pelosi Slams Trump's "Temper Tantrum" Tariff Win With Mexico.

• Visualizing How Different Generations Approach Work.

• Boston Dynamics To Start Selling Creepy Robot Dogs.

Business Insider:

• Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos have profound visions for humanity's future in space. Here's how the billionaires' goals compare.

• Rich New Yorkers are fleeing to Miami to escape high taxes. I spent 3 days there, and it was immediately clear why so many people are making the move. 

• China just blocked The Washington Post and The Guardian from the country's internet. 

• 40 Big Tech Predictions for 2019.

Telegraph:

• Italy budget crisis 2.0: looming battle with the EU will be the bloodiest yet.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.0 -2.0 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 55.0 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.62 -.01%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.44%.

• S&P 500 futures +.44%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.48%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (THO)/1.66

After the Close:

• (CASY)/.53

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings report for April is estimated to rise to 7496 versus 7488 in March.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Trade Balance report and the UK Industrial Production report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.