Tuesday, January 12, 2021

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Dollar Weakness, Stable Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Energy/Retail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.6 -1.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,022.0 +118.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.06 -.01%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 -1.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.6 +2.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 -3.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .70 -11.4%
  • NYSE Arms .60 -3.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.78 +1.23%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 509.53 -.01%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.55 +2.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 112.0 +6.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.52 +3.3%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 165.87 +1.7%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.12 +.13%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 14.5 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.25 +2.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.0 +1.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.75 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.55 +.80%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.
  • Yield Curve 100.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 166.14 USD/Metric Tonne -.69%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 56.30 -2.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 165.10 -2.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 63.0 -2.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.08 +2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -4 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -39 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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