Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Soft Landing Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Metals & Mining/Homebuilder Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.2 -3.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.33%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 56.4 -.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.7 -.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.4 -.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 36.3 -3.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 +8.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.02 +13.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.59 +65.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.9 -.56%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 361.56 +1.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 310.0 -8.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.16 +.39% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 363.18 -3.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 176.0 basis points -6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.9 +.29%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 227.82 -.11%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.95 -.37%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.75 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 15.5 basis points -3.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  136.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 108.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .72 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.6 +.22%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.66% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 123.9 USD/Metric Tonne -1.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 58.27 euros/megawatt-hour -11.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -15.2 +2.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 89.8 +5.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.5 -.5 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 228.22 -.06:  Growth Rate +10.6% -.1 percentage point, P/E 17.6 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .25 -1.0 basis point
  
• Yield Curve -74.75 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.53% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.45% unch.: CPI YoY +6.39% +5.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 84.3%(-3.2 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 56.4%(-.3 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 105 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 7.2%(-.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -79.9%(+1.1 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -54 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +225 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +73 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long