Stocks Higher into Afternoon on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Homebuilding/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.2 -3.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .87%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 59.0 +.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.9 +.02%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.4 +.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.5 -2.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 -14.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -5.6%

• NYSE Arms .91 -32.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.8 -2.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 359.5 +.22%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 296.0 +2.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.6 -.68% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 357.2 -.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 187.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.8 +1.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 224.3 -3.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.9 +.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 28.25 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 21.25 basis points +5.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  131.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 107.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .71 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.5 unch.
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.60% -5.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 128.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 57.3 euros/megawatt-hour +4.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.1 -.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 97.2 +6.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.3 +3.1 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.82 +.03:  Growth Rate +9.9% unch., P/E 17.9 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .26 -3.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -69.0 basis points (2s/10s) +2.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +.67% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.30% unch.: CPI YoY +6.44% +5.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 84.7%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 55.5%(+4.4 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 91 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.2%(-0.0 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -81.9%(+1.3 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +108 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +110 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +63 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/commodity/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long