Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Less Dovish Fed Commentary, US Call for Ukraine's NATO Entrance, Worsening US/Israel Relations, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.8 -3.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .45 -1.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 68.8 +.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.9 +.22%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.6 -1.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.7 -2.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 142.0 -7.0
  

• Total Put/Call .90 -14.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.07 -3.6%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$218.8M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.0 -2.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 276.1 -1.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 268 -12
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.6 -2.2%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 181.6 -2.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.0 basis points -7.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.9 -.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 167.2 -1.4%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 117.9 +.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.18%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 4.75 basis points +1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 137.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 782.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.0 +.24%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.36% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 97.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.2 euros/megawatt-hour +2.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.6 -2.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.7 +6.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.0 +4.7 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +39.5% -2.6 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 250.89 +.04:  Growth Rate +12.4% unch., P/E 20.9 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.85% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 311.79 -.13: Growth Rate +29.8% unch., P/E 32.6 +.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.07 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.06 +7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -34.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.5% -30.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 52.1% +.8 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.67% unch.: CPI YoY +3.41% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 61.0%(-.8 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 51.1%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -273 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +65 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +112 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my consumer discretionary/tech/transport/financial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long