Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Seasonality, Bargain-Hunting, Homebuilding/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Heavy 

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.3 -3.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,073.0 +90.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.57 -.51%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.2 +4.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.2 -2.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 116.0  +12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .91 -2.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.3 -30.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.55 +.31%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 428.53 -3.3%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.39 -3.1%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.58 +2.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 211.09 -1.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.95 +.15%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.75 -1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 12.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -30.75 -1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  70.5 +.75 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.75 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.84 +.31%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 88.5 -11.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.6 -3.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 8.7 +4.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.8 +3.5 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 -6.0 basis points
• 95.2%(-2.3 percentage points) chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting, 73.8%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 169 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -2/100K people
• 32% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) unch.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -190 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -60 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -154 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long