Stocks Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Global Virus Lockdown Worries, Dollar Strength, Financial/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.8 +1.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,489.0 -105.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.0 -.64%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 +.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 31.4 +5.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 122.0  -18.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .87 +1.2%

• NYSE Arms .95 +1.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.55 +.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 422.12 +1.8%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.09 +.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 127.0 -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.3 -.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 198.35 +2.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.1 +.29%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.75 +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 17.75 +2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.25 +2.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.0 +1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 +.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.32 -1.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 79.5 +.25 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 121.75 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.9 -.9 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 11.1 -.7 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.7 +1.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 -3.0 basis points
• 52.2%(-6.0 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th meeting, 36.0%(-2.9 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 263 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +5/100K people
• 49% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +1.0 percentage point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +145 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +6 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging market shorts

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long