Thursday, December 08, 2022

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on China Re-Opening Hopes, Dollar Weakness, Less Earnings Outlook Pessimism, Tech/Medical Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume:  Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.2 -1.9%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .63%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 46.4 +1.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 149.1 +.5%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.5 -1.6%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.3 -2.3% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 122.0 +7.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .90 -26.2%
  • NYSE Arms .90 -39.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 82.0 -.33%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 384.61 -1.7%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 443.0 +5.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 101.51 +.29% 
  • Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 446.9 +3.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 188.0 basis points +6.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 133.28 +.23%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 236.08 -1.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.05 -.96%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 31.5 basis points -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 46.5 basis points +3.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -32.25 basis points +.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  146.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 126.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.18 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.84 +.08%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.25% -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 109.70 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 138.5 euros/megawatt-hour -7.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.5 -.7 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 38.0 +.3 point\
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.5 unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.31 +.07:  Growth Rate +11.3% unch, P/E 17.2 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.66 +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve -82.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.37% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.87% unch.: CPI YoY +7.49% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 46.5%(+1.0 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 45.1%(-.3 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
US Covid-19:
  • 91 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.2%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -77.2%(+0.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +86 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +49 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

No comments: