Stocks Higher into Afternoon on China Re-Opening Hopes, Dollar Weakness, Less Earnings Outlook Pessimism, Tech/Medical Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.2 -1.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .63%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 46.4 +1.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 149.1 +.5%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.5 -1.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.3 -2.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 122.0 +7.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .90 -26.2%

• NYSE Arms .90 -39.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 82.0 -.33%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 384.61 -1.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 443.0 +5.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 101.51 +.29% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 446.9 +3.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 188.0 basis points +6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 133.28 +.23%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 236.08 -1.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.05 -.96%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 31.5 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 46.5 basis points +3.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -32.25 basis points +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  146.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 126.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.18 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.84 +.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.25% -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 109.70 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 138.5 euros/megawatt-hour -7.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.5 -.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 38.0 +.3 point\
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.5 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.31 +.07:  Growth Rate +11.3% unch, P/E 17.2 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.66 +1.0 basis point
  
• Yield Curve -82.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.37% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.87% unch.: CPI YoY +7.49% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 46.5%(+1.0 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 45.1%(-.3 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 91 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.2%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -77.2%(+0.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +86 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +49 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long