Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:             

• China’s Covid Shift Expands as Shanghai, Hangzhou Ease Rules.
• ECB’s Villeroy Wants 50 Basis-Point Hike to Fight Inflation.  
• Emerging Markets Face Risk of Policy Error Amid Conflicting Priorities.  
• Euro’s Traditional Santa Rally Faces a High Bar This Time.
• US Crackdown on Solar-Tariff Dodgers Endangers Biden’s Green Ambitions.
  
• French Birth Rate Plummets to Lowest in Decades on Pandemic.
• Australia Set to Raise Rates as Tightening Cycle Approaches End.
• Investors Weigh US Jobs Strength, China Reopening: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Rises as China Loosens Curbs and OPEC+ Keeps Output Steady.
  
• OPEC+ Pauses as Russia Sanctions and China Covid Rules Roil Crude Markets.
• SBF Says He Will Testify Before House, Without Committing to Date.
• Report of ‘Secret’ Saudi Oil Production Deal Probed by House GOP.
  
• J&J Says It Won’t Make an Offer for Horizon Therapeutics.  
• Your Sunday Briefing: Georgia Finally Decides.

Wall Street Journal:

• Parents Who Share Info About Their Kids Online Are a Cybersecurity Risk. Here’s Why.
• Billions in Covid Aid Went to Hospitals That Didn’t Need It.
• Hardly Anyone Is Buying Biden’s Bivalent Boosters. The administration has oversold vaccines for two years, and Covid is less lethal now anyway.
• The American Spies Who Spread Disinformation in 2020. Fifty-one former intelligence officials issued a statement saying the Hunter Biden email story had ‘all the classic earmarks of a Russian information operation.’ 
• Apple’s Warning About China Business. Shareholders are going to want to know how companies are diversifying risk from the People’s Republic. 
• Stock Funds Rise Again but Remain Damaged.
• Clashes Over FTX Bankruptcy Go Global.
• In Georgia, Midterm Turnout and Blank Ballots Might Reveal Who Has the Edge.
• Iran Abolishes Morality Police, Considers Changing Hijab Laws.
• CVS Tries Out Remote System to Help Fill Prescriptions.
• Business-Software Companies Say Customers Are Pulling Back.
• Poor Countries Feel Sting of Local-Currency Debt.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (WHR), (LEN), (NVR), (DHI), (BOOT), (WDAY), (CDAY), (HUBS), (MAS), (ABBV) and (FBHS).

Fox News:

• Nicholas Sandmann requests specific 'hidden' docs from Musk in next 'Twitter Files' dump.
• Tens of thousands without power after substations taken out by intentional vandalism with gunfire.
• Musk says he faces 'quite significant' risk of being assassinated.

CNBC:

• OPEC+ agrees to stick to its existing policy of reducing oil production ahead of Russia sanctions.
• Manufacturing orders from China down 40% in demand collapse.
• A globally critical chip firm is driving a wedge between the U.S. and the Netherlands. 

Zero Hedge:   

• US Intelligence Chief Predicts 'Reduced Tempo', Waning Morale Of Russian Forces Entering Winter. 
• "Even Our Labor-Friendly Party Does Not Have The Stomach For The Resurgence Of Union Power".
• Reversal Of Long-Standing Policy Keeps Key Documents On Hunter Biden’s Business From Congress.
• Rate Hikes: The Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Declines.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Bipartisan Group Of US Senators Warns CCP Over Quelling Of Protests.
• Antifa Aims To Disrupt Florida Rally Opposing The Sexualization Of Children.
• Stocks Have "Considerably More Downside" & Commodities Have A "Brand New Tailwind" In 2023.
•  "He Turned His Back": Rail Workers Fume After Biden Forces Unions To Accept Deal.
• Twitter Staff To Be Grilled Before Congress For Censoring Hunter Biden Laptop Story: Rep. Comer.
• Apple Accelerates Plans To Shift Production Out Of China.
• What A GOP House Majority Means For Corporate America.
• Will Your State Reject The Fed's Digital Dollar?
• OPEC+ Keeps Oil Production Unchanged, Maintains 2MMb/d Output Cut After Launch Of Russia Price Cap.
• Goldman, BofA, Citi Employees Join Jefferies In Expecting "Slashed' Bonuses This Holiday Season.
• Greenwald Drags MSM Journos For 'Hive-Mind' Hackery Over Taibbi-Twitter Bombshell.
• Brussels Bailing Out Ukraine Will Ruin Europe For Generations, Hungary's Orban Warns.
• Winter In Central Europe... And For The Dollar.
• Mapped: Where Does Our Food Come From?
• Not Even N95 Masks Work To Stop Covid.
• San Francisco Is The Canary In The Coal Mine For Where Wokeism Is Headed.

MarketWatch.com:   

• BofA is selling U.S. equities rally on worries that unemployment will be ‘shocking’ in 2023.
• Bill Ackman says he sees why FTX victims want Sam Bankman-Fried to ‘suffer’ severe consequences ‘including jail time’.

NewsMax:

• Musk Vows 'More Smoking Guns' to Come in Twitter Exposé.
• Trump: 'Corrupt' DOJ Will Do Nothing After 'Twitter Files'.
• Rep. Fallon to Newsmax: Musk Confirming 'Worst Fears' Every Day.
• Former EPA Official: Americans Need to Prepare Now For Outages.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Elon Musk Blasts the Corporate Media for Ignoring the Twitter Files, Which Exposed Hunter Biden Laptop Censorship. 
• CHRIS WRAY NEEDS TO RESIGN: FBI Began Covertly Surveilling Rudy Giuliani One Month After He Was Hired as President Trump’s Personal Attorney. 
• FBI Held Weekly Calls with Big Tech Before 2020 Election and Provided List of URLs Pushing “Disinformation” for Big Tech to Censor.
• Senator Johnson: Censorship of Hunter Biden’s Laptop is “Just Part of a Much Larger Story”.
• New Zealand Government Seeks Custody of a Baby After Parents Refuse to Use Vaccinated Blood for Their Son’s Surgery (VIDEO).
• Biden’s EPA Prepares to Kill Alaska Mine Project Despite Billions in Potential Revenues and Little Threat to Environment – Murkowski Opposes Project Too.
• PROOF: Secretary of State Katie Hobbs Had Twitter Silence Her Critics in Arizona – Prior to Gubernatorial Election She Ran In.
• Massive Power Outage in North Carolina Being Investigated as a ‘Criminal Occurrence,’ Substations Believed to Have Been Sabotaged.
• “The Family’s Influence Peddling is a National Security Risk – Maybe He Is Compromised?” – House Oversight Ranking Member James Comer on Joe Biden (VIDEO).
• New Survey Finds Political Polarization Is Eroding Public’s Trust In The Military.

The Epoch Times:

• Former CCP Leader Jiang Zemin’s Campaign of Repression Laid Groundwork for China’s Digital Dictatorship: Experts.
• Protest Against China’s COVID Lockdowns in New York City, Urumqi Fire Victims Mourned.

Twitter:

• @almost_midnite - What? "After 1,600 auditors combed through DOD’s $3.5 trillion in assets and $3.7 trillion in liabilities, officials found that the department couldn’t account for about 61 percent of its assets, Pentagon Comptroller Mike McCord told reporters on Tuesday."
• @songpinganq - Chinese emigrant workers walking 45 days (more than 1,000 miles) from Xinjiang province to their homes. Because authority remotely switched their QR codes (COVID passport) to code yellow and they can't take any transports (bus,train,plane). (video) NEW - These emigrant workers from other provinces, whose QR codes (COVID passport) were remotely switched to code yellow , deciding to walk 45 days - more than 1,000 miles from Xinjiang province to their homes With yellow QR code, they can't take any transports (bus,train,plane). (video) One big problem here is there aren't flush toilets in these pods of this quarantine camp. With so many people use public toilets, this is result. (video)
  
• @WallSteetSilv - This is China’s largest isolation camp under construction… in the densely populated Guangzhou area… It has 246,407 beds… China is becoming a giant prison on a scale that the world has never seen before… why? (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 901,032 Reports(+3,103 from prior week) Through November 18th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 131.25 -1.0 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 76.5 -1.75 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 108.6 USD/Metric Tonne +2.5%
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.94 +.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 50.3 +.7%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.42 unch. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.1 +.9%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.08%.
• S&P 500 futures -.16%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for Oct. is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.3% gain in Sept. 
• ISM Services Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to 53.5 versus 54.4 in Oct.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI report, Raymond James Tech Conference, UBS Media/Telecom/Tech Conference and the Goldman Industrials Conference could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.