Friday, October 23, 2020

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Virus Vaccine/Treatment Optimism, Stimlus Hopes, Short-Covering, Homebuilding/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 28.1 -.11%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 266.0 unch.
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.67 +.19%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.93 -.18%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.04 +1.71%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 134.0 +35.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .81 +2.53%
  • NYSE Arms 1.19 +142.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.75 -1.02%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 803.40 -.17%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.50 -2.23%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.44 -.61%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 203.16 +.25%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 179.56 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.25 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 13.0 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.5 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  80.0 +.75 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.74 +.04%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
  • Yield Curve 70.0 +3.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 113.75 USD/Metric Tonne -3.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 127.9 -.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.70 +10.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.50 -.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.75 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +19 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +167 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -31 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/industrial/consumer staple sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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