Thursday, October 01, 2020

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Stimulus Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yld Debt Angst, Technical Buying, Tech/Retail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 26.8 +1.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.0 -103.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.39 +.25%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.79 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.1 -6.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 125.0 +10.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .74 -9.8%
  • NYSE Arms 1.87 +261.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.19 -.06%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 875.39 -.43%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.62 -.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 136.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.20 -2.85%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 224.41 -2.88%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 177.96 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 13.25 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 +1.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  92.0 -.75 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 66.75 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.46 +.20%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 56.25 +4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.94 USD/Metric Tonne -.09%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 167.9 -5.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 49.60 +1.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 50.6 +1.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64 -2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +148 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +163 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -31 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/consumer staple sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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