Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• Japan’s Jobless Rate Edges Up to a Three-Year High.
• Second Cyber Attack in a Week Hits Global Shipping Industry.  
• Brexit Talks Are Due to Wrap But the Market Volatility May Go On.
• Japan Stocks Rise as Trading Reopens Post Outage: Markets Wrap. Japanese stocks advanced as trading on the Tokyo Stock Exchange resumed after Thursday’s outage, while holiday closures in other major Asian markets may make for a subdued equity trading session. The dollar was steady ahead of the monthly U.S. payrolls data. Shares in Tokyo opened higher, while those in Australia dipped. S&P 500 contracts edged down. U.S. shares earlier rose as traders awaited the outcome of fiscal-stimulus talks between Democratic lawmakers and the White House. The House of Representatives passed a $2.2 trillion Democrat-only fiscal stimulus package after the most concerted talks between the top negotiators since early August failed to yield a bipartisan agreement. Low trading activity and reduced liquidity could exacerbate moves in Friday trading with China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, India and South Korea all shut for holidays. Oil fell amid concern the market may be oversupplied. Gold and Treasury yields were steady. S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% as of 9:19 a.m. in Tokyo. The index rose 0.5% on Thursday. Japan’s Topix index added 0.6%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.6%.  
• Oil Set for Second Weekly Loss on Deteriorating Demand Backdrop.
• Still No Deal, Global Debt Alert, Hong Kong Crackdown: Eco Day.
• Pelosi-Mnuchin Calls Yield No Deal Yet on U.S. Virus Stimulus.
• New York City Under Pressure; CDC Funds Stalled: Virus Update.
• Manhattan Office Space Floods Market in Biggest Jump Since 2008.  
• Pushing for More Scrutiny of Chinese Stocks Traded in the U.S.   
• Cerberus Is Repackaging Near-Junk CMBS Into Top-Rated Securities.

Wall Street Journal:

• Long Before Nikola Trucks, Trevor Milton Sold Investors on Startups That Faded.
• Home Sales Surge in Resort Towns Even as Covid Looms Large Over Ski Season.
• Pandemic Pain Persists for Big Oil Companies.
• The U.S. Economy Was Laden With Debt Before Covid. That’s Bad News for a Recovery.  
• U.S. Auto Sales Show Signs of Recovery in Third Quarter.

Fox News:

• Reporter finds no guards, no cameras at elections warehouse.
• First state in the country lifts mask mandate as COVID cases fall.
  

CNBC.com:

• Amazon says more than 19,000 workers got Covid-19.
• House antitrust panel nears final steps in its investigation of Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google.
• September was a bad month for stocks, and October might be rocky too: CNBC After Hours.
• Twilio shares rise as it forecasts more quarterly revenue than expected.
  

MarketWatch.com:     

• Here are the biggest winners in a solid third quarter for U.S. stocks.
  
• Why billionaire investor Leon Cooperman says there are ‘three stock markets,’ as he warns about danger in FAANG stocks.
  
• IMF scrambles as potential global debt crisis comes into view.

Zero Hedge:  

• "No, Not Trump, Not Ever": Second Debate Moderator Worked For Biden, Tweeted Resistance Screed.
• Trump Adviser Hope Hicks Tests Positive For COVID-19.
• House Democrats Pass $2.2 Trillion Virus Relief Bill, Crushing Hopes For Compromise Stimulus Before The Elections.
• Macau Gaming Revenues Remain Down 90% In September As Slump Continues.
• Rising Homicides This Year May Be Yet Another Side-Effect Of COVID Lockdowns.
• Gallup Finds Majority Of Americans Believe Trump Will Win Re-election.
• Pfizer CEO Says COVID-19 Vaccine "Will Be Ready At The Speed Of Science": Live Updates.
• California Gov. Newsom Signs Bill Paving Way To Study Slavery Reparations.
• Copper, Crude, Crypto, & Credit Clobbered As Stimulus Hopes Fade.

The Epoch Times:

• 150 Human Rights Groups Rally to Oppose Chinese Communist Party’s Ruling.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.25 -3.0 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 47.5 -.75 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.43 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 57.0 -55.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 32.45 -.08%
• FTSE 100 futures -.09%.

• S&P 500 futures -.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Sept. is estimated at 875k versus 1,371K in Aug.
• The Unemployment Rate for Sept. is estimated to fall to 8.2% versus 8.4% in Aug.
• Avg. Hourly Earnings MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in Aug.
  

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for Aug. is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +6.4% gain in July. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Brazil Industrial Production report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finished modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.