Friday, October 16, 2020

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Stimulus Hopes, US Economic Data, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yld Debt Angst, Healthcare/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume:  Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 26.4 -2.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 240.0 +47.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.91 +.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.12 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.5 -.29%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 124.0 +12.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .90 +18.4%
  • NYSE Arms .76 +13.4
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.35 -2.02%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 808.66 -.48%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.74 -3.56%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 127.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.60 -.55%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 204.68 -1.74%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 179.26 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 12.25 -1.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.25 +3.0 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  82.25 -2.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.34 +.19%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 59.25 +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 117.0 USD/Metric Tonne +3.36%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 134.2 -4.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.50 -2.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 43.0 -1.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.71 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +135 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +25 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/consumer staple/tech/medical/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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