Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• Asia to Ramp Up Gasoline Exports to US as Sky-High Prices Beckon.
• Stocks Set to Sink as Bonds Jump on Growth Fears: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Falls as Equities Sink and China Imposes More Lockdowns.
  
• Stock Bounce Call ‘Proved Wrong,’ Cantor Strategist Concedes.
• What You Need to Know About the Baby Formula Shortage.
• Democrats Press Biden to Go Big on Forgiving Student Loan Debt.
• Farmers Are Buying Up Expensive Weedkiller Even As Costs Soar.   
• The Long, Slow Death of Lehman Brothers Is Almost Complete.  
• Vast Swath of US at Risk of Summer Blackouts, Regulator Warns.
• Buying Call Options Is New Stock Hedge for Traders Eyeing a Big Bounce.  
• Surging Dollar Stirs Markets Buzz of a 1980s-Style Plaza Accord.

Wall Street Journal:

• Biden Can Boost Energy Production—and Protect National Parks. Renewing offshore oil and gas leases would support Land and Water Conservation Fund.
• Blue chips have worst day since 2020 as S&P, Nasdaq lose over 4%.
• Stock Selloff Crunches SPAC Creators.
• Heard on the Street: This Could Be a Lost Decade for Stocks.
• High Inflation, Slowing Growth Raise Risk of Global Downturn.
• Recession Looms, but Markets Haven’t Got the Message.
• The Next Emerging-Market Crisis? Developing economies face a perilous return to monetary normal.
• Fentanyl Overdose Rates Are Rising Fast. The drug will continue killing Americans until Biden decides to get control of the border. 
• There’s a New Media Mogul Tearing Up Hollywood: ‘Zas Is Not Particularly Patient’
• Treasury Likely to Prevent U.S. Investors From Receiving Russian Debt Payments.
• Latest Updates: U.S. Embassy Resumes Work in Kyiv.
• Elon Musk Calls ESG ‘An Outrageous Scam’.
• More Crypto Market Pain Seen by SEC Chairman.
  

Fox News:

• Biden admin’s ‘bureaucratic bungling' made baby formula shortage worse, CEO who rescued GM says.
• Dem witness tells House committee men can get pregnant, have abortions.

CNBC.com:

• Here’s what Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe’s tell us about the state of the American consumer.
• Bath & Body Works shares fall as retailer cuts profit outlook due to inflation.
• Cisco stock plunges as company forecasts surprising revenue decline.
• Under Armour CEO Patrik Frisk to step down, interim chief to take over June 1.
• Treasury yields fall, prices rise as investors huddle in bonds for safety amid stock sell-off.
  

MarketWatch:     

• A ‘summer of pain’? The Nasdaq could plunge 75% from peak, S&P 500 skid 45% from its top, warns Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd  
• Fed will keep raising interest rates until it is ‘confident’ inflation is moving down, Harker says  
• Goldman Sachs CEO sees a ‘30% chance of recession’ within the next 12 to 24 months.  
• Next big shoe to drop in financial markets: Inflation that fails to respond to Fed rate hikes.  
• You bought. They sold. Meet some of the insiders who unloaded $35 billion of stock in the tech IPO bonanza that tanked. 
• Bad news for the 2022 hurricane season: The Loop Current, a fueler of monster storms, is looking a lot like it did in 2005, the year of Katrina.

Zero Hedge: 

• Musk Vs. Soros: "I Can No Longer Support Democrats, Will Vote Republican".
• Biden's 'Disinfo' Board Paused As 'Scary Poppins' Resigns.
• Biden Admin Bracing For Wave Of Summer Violence Over Roe v. Wade.
• Diesel Costs Deliver Body Blow To Trucking Industry, Impacting Broader Economy.
• Mortality Among White Collar Workers Jumped 24 Percent Between 2020 And 2021, Life Insurance Data Show.
• Guess What Comes Next.
• China Mulls Extending EV Subsidies Amidst Surging Raw Material Costs.
• Trucking Stocks Massacred After Target Warns Of $1 Billion In Incremental Freight Costs.
• Goldman Economist Warns US Consumers Maxing Out Credit Cards Will Lead To Late 2022 Spending Collapse.
• UFO Hearing: Pentagon Shows Declassified Footage of Flying Spherical Object.
• "I Have Given Everything I Could": Melvin Capital Calls It A Day, Will Wind Down Fund After Gigantic Losses.
• Weaponizing The Pursuit Of Profit: Rubio Warns Of 'Extraordinary' Leverage Held By China Over American Companies.
• Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open - Wall Street bloodbath.
• Over-Aggressive Fed Faces "Financial Accident" - Guggenheim Warns Recession Risk Rising.
• Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Spoos records worst day since June 2020 while Treasuries and Buck soar.
• Cisco Crashes 20% On Catastrophic Guidance; Blames China, Ukraine.
• Key NIH Research Executive Received 70 Secret Royalty Payments; Colleague Got 7.
• Stocks & Bond Yields Crater As The 'American Consumer Is Strong' Narrative Implodes.

Newsmax:   

• Russia Burning Through $15.5M Per Hour on War.
• NATO Tech Officials Hold 1st Cyber Summit Amid Invasion.
• Internal Dem Generic Poll: GOP Up by 8 in Battleground Districts.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Months After Infant Formula Shortages Started, Slow Joe Biden Invokes Defense Production Act.
• Just In: Health Officials Confirm First 2022 U.S. Case of Monkeypox in Massachusetts.
• Hilarious! Doocy to Jean-Pierre After Jankowicz Resigns: “The Disinformation Board is Being Shut Down Because of Disinformation?” (VIDEO).
• Here We Go: US Government to Extend Covid-19 Public Health Emergency Past July.
• Watch: Continuous Protests Spread Across Iran Following a Massive Price Hike in Food and Other Basic Goods.
• US Citizen, Four Chinese Intelligence Officers Charged with Acting as Secret Police to Harass, Stalk, Spy on US Residents Critical to China.
• Biden Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg Says Truckers Can Work Longer Hours to Address the Baby Formula Shortage.
• WATCH: Trump Endorsed AZ Gubernatorial Candidate Kari Lake “Flabbergasted” By Conservative Media’s Silence On 2000 Mules – “We Want People To Be Arrested, Prosecuted, And Thrown In Jail”.
• Autopsy Reveals Healthy 36-Year-Old Mother Died from Acute Myocarditis Due to Her Covid-19 Immunization.

The Epoch Times:

• Trump Announces Forthcoming Book About the 2020 Election.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 813,020 Reports(+2,363 from prior week) Through May 6th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.25% to -1.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.5 +3.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS  84.75 +5.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.64 unch.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,842.0 -33.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 32.0 +1.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.01%.

• S&P 500 futures -.40%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.62%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BJ)/.72
• (GOOS)/-.01
• (EXP)/1.83
• (KSS)/.70
• (MNRO)/.46
• (PLCE)/1.46
• (VIPS)/1.90

After the Close:

• (AMAT)/1.90
• (DECK)/1.32
• (FLO)/.39
• (PANW)/1.68
• (ROST)/1.00
• (VFC)/.47
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for May is estimated to fall to 15.0 versus 17.6 in April.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 200K versus 203K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1320K versus 1343K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for April is estimated to fall to 5.65M versus 5.77M in March.
• The Leading Index for April is estimated unch. versus a +.3% gain in March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.