Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:              

• Blinken Aims at Xi in Speech Vowing to Shape the Global Order.
• Beijing Adds More Cases as Anxiety Over China Economy Swells.  
• Japan Steel Giant Warns More Hikes Coming for Cars to Appliances.
  
• Russia Faces Biggest Debt Test Yet as US Payment Ban Clouds Path.
  
• Ukraine Latest: Putin Ties Grain Exports to Dropping Sanctions.
• Asia Stocks Buoyed After US Rally; Dollar Declines: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Rises With Broader Rally as US Fuel Stockpiles Tighten.
  
• Dell’s Sales Top Estimates on Strong Office PC Growth.
  
• Delta Is Cutting Flights to ‘Relieve Pressure’ on Operations.
• A Compromise on Gun Safety Is Brewing in the Senate, Democrats Say.  
• A New Prediction Market Lets Investors Bet Big on Almost Anything.

 Wall Street Journal:

• Texas Parents Angered Over Police Response to Shooting.
• Gunman walked into school unobstructed after firing shots outside for 12 minutes.
• Beto O’Rourke Goes for Broke. The Texas Democrat makes a show of politicizing the mass shooting in Uvalde.
• As Russian Forces Retreated, Mock Executions and Beatings Increased.
• Latest Updates on the War.
• Natural-Gas Prices Surge as Cooling Season Switches On.
• FDA Chief Urges U.S. Baby-Formula Stockpile.
• Fed Official Says Digital Dollar Could Coexist With Stablecoins.

CNBC.com:

• Home listings jump as sellers worry they may miss out on the red-hot housing market.
• 3 takeaways from Dollar General, Dollar Tree earnings that sent stocks soaring.
• Gap shares fall 13% after retailer slashes profit guidance for the year.
• Microsoft exec tells employees in Windows and Office groups to be more cautious in hiring.  
  

MarketWatch:            

• ‘Not the decoupling we wanted,’ crypto investor says as bitcoin slumps, stocks rise. Can digital assets make a comeback in 2022?  
• Costco sales top estimates by $1 billion, but retailer misses on same-store sales.  
• Twitter shareholders sue Elon Musk, accusing him of manipulating stock.  
• Airlines face severe pilot shortage as summer travel season nears.

Zero Hedge: 

• "People Are Not In A Good Place" - Mom-And-Pop Investors Panic As Fed Abandons Them.
• "Too Slow": FDA Admits Delayed Response To Complaints About US Baby Formula Plant.
• Uvalde Shooter Fired Gun For 12 Minutes Outside School Before Entering.
• Cost Of EV Batteries May Increase 15% Amid Supply-Chain Disruptions: Report.
• Rising Rates Are Squeezing Landlord Profits.
• "This Is A Crucible Moment" - Sequoia's Ominous Warning To Companies On How To "Avoid The Death Spiral".
• Thank Retail Investors The S&P Is Not In A Bear Market, And For All Those Last Hour Ramps.
• East Coast Diesel Inventories Tighter Again; Other Numbers Offer Buyers Hope.
• Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open - US stocks gain as risk returns amid month-end flows.
• Oil Spikes Near Post-Putin Highs, Gasoline's At Record-Highs Ahead Of Driving Season.
• Rash Of Parts-Thefts Is Leaving Freightliner Trucks Inoperable.
• Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Stocks and commodities prosper as Dollar stumbles further into major month-end flows.
• Biden Repeats False Claim About The Second Amendment.
• Massive Short-Squeeze Sends Stocks Soaring As Macro Massacre Continues.

 Newsmax: 

• Police Face Questions Over Delays in Storming Texas School.
• US, Ukraine Talk Escalation Risks as New Arms Extend Kyiv's Reach.
• Ukraine Says War in East at 'Maximum Intensity'.

Rebel News:

• Introducing The Reset: The Great Reset Docuseries. (video)

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• World Health Organization Temporarily Withdraws Biden’s ‘Public Health Emegency’ Amendments.
• Georgia Democrat Stacey Abrams Laughs as Show Host Makes Fun of Joe Biden’s “Alzheimer’s” (VIDEO).
• Uvalde Mother Placed in Handcuffs by Federal Marshals For Attempting to Enter School to Save Her Child While Salvador Ramos Went on Killing Spree.
• Biden’s Secretary of State Tony Blinken, with Family Ties to Soros, Backtracks From Recent State Dept. Declaration and Says the US Does Not Support Taiwan Independence.
• Klaus Schwab, Pfizer CEO Trash ‘Conspiracy People’ At World Health Assembly: ‘There Is A Very Fanatic Group Of Anti-Vaxxers That Will Go After Us No Matter What’.
• ‘Goodfellas’ Star Ray Liotta Dies in His Sleep at 67.
• Witness: Police Stood Outside the School While Mass Murderer Salvador Ramos Went on Killing Spree – Armed Police Pinned One Man to the Ground (VIDEO).
• “With Regards to Brad [Raffensperger] I Don’t Think Anyone Believes Down Here That He Actually Won” – VoterGA’s Garland Favorito on Georgia GOP Primary.

The Epoch Times:

• Musk Warns About Declining US Birth Rate: ‘We Just Need to Celebrate Having Kids’.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 817,537 Reports(+4,517 from prior week) Through May 13th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.0 -3.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS  71.0 -2.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.06 +.06%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,994.0 -33.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.2 +.31%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.08%.

• S&P 500 futures +.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BIG)/.94
• (HIBB)/3.15
• (SAFM)/7.42
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Advance Goods Trade Balance for April is estimated at -$114.8B versus -$125.3B in March.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for April is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a +2.3% gain in March.
• Personal Income for April is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in March.
• Personal Spending for April is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +1.1% gain in March.
• Retail Inventories MoM for April is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a +2.0% gain in March. 
• The PCE Core MoM for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bullard speaking and the Eurozone Money Supply report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.