Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yld Debt Angst, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 30.1 +18.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,167.0 -288.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.23 +.04%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.0 +.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 48.5 +5.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 87.0 -18.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.12 +7.7%

• NYSE Arms 1.78 +271.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 83.01 +5.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 372.66 -1.7%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 104.22 +1.9%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 200.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 120.95 -1.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 280.53 +3.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.25 -.51%
• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 4,319.70 +.4%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 34.0 +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 56.75 +1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.5 -1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  123.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.16 -.84%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.47 -.92%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .84% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 36.75 (2s/10s) +7.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 143.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.1 -4.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.9 -8.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.2 -1.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.89 +1.0 basis point
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at September 21st meeting

US Covid-19:

• 139 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +3/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -89.7%(+.6 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -38 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -300 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -32 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my tech/commodity/industrial/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long