Wednesday, May 11, 2022

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Outlook Concerns, Forced Selling, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume:  Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 33.0 +.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,733.0 -74.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.72 -.52%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.6 +.1%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 50.7 -2.0% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 112.0 +11.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.08 +9.1%
  • NYSE Arms .97 -6.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 87.39 -.03%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 418.28 +.06%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 103.43 -3.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 191.0 basis points -9.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 128.04 -2.4%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 295.23 -.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.89 -.48%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 4,703.27 -1.9%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 28.25 basis points +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 51.25 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.75 basis points unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  123.0 +3.0 basis points
  • iShares CMBS ETF 48.42 +.07%
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.86 +.29%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .88% unch.
  • Yield Curve 28.25 basis points (2s/10s) -7.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 131.90 USD/Metric Tonne +.09%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.1 +6.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 28.3 -1.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.5 -3.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 +6.0 basis points
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at September 21st meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 164 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 10.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +8/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -87.9%(+1.4 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -203 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -133 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -172 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long

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