Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:       

• What-If DC War Game Maps Huge Toll of a Future US-China War Over Taiwan.    
• US Lawmakers Visit Taiwan After Pelosi Trip Infuriates China.
• China Factory Orders Shrink in Ominous Sign for Global Outlook.
• China's Demographics Spell Decline Not Domination.  
• Beijing Asks New Delhi to Reiterate ‘One China’ Principle.
• South Korea to Slash National Budget for First Time in 13 Years.  
• Secret to Enduring Stagflation Sends Traders to Emerging Markets.
• UK Inflation Shock Is Within Whisker of Double Digits.  
• UK Property Asking Prices Fall the Most in More Than Two Years.  
• Germany Heads for Engineering Pay Showdown Due to Energy Crisis.
  
• World Embraces Dirtier Fuels as Gas Hits Exorbitant Heights.
• World’s Oldest Glass Maker Riedel Braces for Shutdowns as Gas Crisis Deepens.
  
• Asia Analysts Predict Biggest Profit Drop Since Pandemic Started.
  
• White House Nears Road Map on Taiwan Trade Amid China Discord.
• How the US Toppled the World’s Most Powerful Gold Trader.  
• Fed Minutes May Reveal Inclinations on Size of Next Rate Hike.  
• Police: Man Killed Himself After Ramming US Capitol Barrier.
• Your Sunday Briefing: From Retail Angst to Apple’s Ad Push.  
• Aramco Profit Surges to Another Record on Bumper Oil Market.
• Morgan Stanley’s Shalett Warns of ‘Head Fake’ in Inflation Data.  
• Wells Fargo Plans Major Retreat From Mortgage Business It Long Dominated.

Wall Street Journal: 

• The Middle Class Won’t Escape the New IRS Audit Wave. A CBO analysis belies a White House claim about new funding for federal tax collectors.
• Britain’s Net Zero Lesson for the U.S. Soaring energy prices may send a third of the U.K. into poverty.
• Market Rebound Has Some Investors Unconvinced.
• The Outlook: Labor Shortage Is Challenge for U.S. Economy.
• Faster Internet Is Coming to America—as Soon as the Government Knows Where to Build It.
• Wall Street Bets on Both Green Energy and Fossil Fuels.
• Aramco Reports Record Profit, Enriching Saudi Kingdom.
• Your Next Fish and Chips at the Pub Could Cost 40% More.
• Public Pension Systems Join Those Stung by Crypto Crash.
• Men’s Body-Image Issues Got Worse During Pandemic—Even if Many Didn’t Realize It.
• California Efforts to Reduce Jail Population During Covid End Amid Rising Crime.
• As Celebrity Backlash Grows, So Does Overall Private Jet Use.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (LLY), (FCX), (BE), (PLUG), (RUN) and (AEO).
• Had bearish commentary on (BBBY), (PRTY) and (RAD).

Fox News:

• US lawmakers make unannounced trip to Taiwan days after Speaker Pelosi's visit enraged China.
• Mexican authorities take drastic action after cartel threatens killing spree.
  
• FBI warns of 'dirty bomb' threat, increasing calls for violence as Mar-a-Lago raid fallout mounts.
• Harmeet Dhillon: Trump raid deeply troubling for those who care about civil liberties.

CNBC:

• The Motor City is moving south as EVs change the automotive industry.
  
• Wall Street’s top analysts say these are their top picks right now.
• The other reason why food prices are rising.
• Why ‘box fatigue’ may be hitting the apparel industry and what it means for Stitch Fix and others.
• Why the U.S. is struggling to modernize the electric grid.

Zero Hedge:

• Thomas Piketty Wants To Bring Back Communism In The Guise Of Democratic Socialism.
• Heating Your Home Will Hurt This Winter As Natural Gas Prices Climb.
• The State Of Unemployment In Europe.
• Why Solar Power Is Failing Amid Record-Breaking Heat.
• Former FBI Assistant Director Says 'Handful In Leadership' Are Politicizing Bureau, Following Mar-a-Lago Raid.
• It's Game-Over For The Fed - Expect A Monetary "Rug Pull" Soon...
• Time To Take A Stand.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Hedge Fund CIO: Here's Why Trading Often Destroys People, Devouring Them From Within.
• Ray Epps Told FBI He Expected Bomb Attack Near The Capitol On January 6, Documents Show.
• "You Are Next": JK Rowling Receives Death Threat In Wake Of Salman Rushdie Attack.
• "Supply, Commodity, And Dollar Shocks": Morgan Stanley Sees Gathering Storm Clouds Of A Global Recession.
• Former FBI Agent Says Mar-a-Lago Raid Was Government’s Attempt To 'Embarrass' Trump.
• Shorts carried out on stretchers as FOMO kicks in.
• High Prices, Range Anxiety Holding Back EV Adoption.
• Where Americans Plan To Cut Back In Face Of Inflation.
• Housing Affordability Index Drops To Lowest Rate Since 1989, Still Way Too High.
• Taiwanese Officials Trounce Pelosi After Son's Huge Holdings In China Tech Exposed. 
• Heating Your Home Will Hurt This Winter As Natural Gas Prices Climb.
• Why Solar Power Is Failing Amid Record-Breaking Heat.
• Brandon Smith: Artificial Intelligence - A Secular Look At The Digital Antichrist.
• Special Ops Veteran Cancels Plans For Sunday Protest At FBI Headquarters After 'Trap' Warnings.
• Washington, DC Mayor Asks US Military For 90 Days Of Help With Illegal Immigrants.
• Potato Shortage Emerges In Idaho As Prices Surge At Supermarkets.
• Wokepox: The WHO Is Asking For The Public's Help In Re-Naming Monkeypox.
• Why Labor Productivity Has Collapsed.
• Ken Griffin Deploys More Than $1 Billion On Florida Real Estate After Leaving Chicago.
• Long Term Returns Are Unsustainable.
• "Tijuana Under Attack!": Sudden Eruption Of Cartel Violence Leaves Cars Burned Across Border City.
• Small Businesses' Big Message For The Markets.
• Salman Rushdie's Attacker Is A New Jersey Man With Shia Extremist & Iranian Sympathies.
• A Giant Stride Toward Socialism.
• FBI Sends 'Clear Message' To Trump, His Supporters: The Swamp Is Real, Rep. Davidson Says.
• College Endowments Suffer Their Worst Performance In Since The Financial Crisis.
• Africa Needs Conventional Fuels, Not Windmills And Solar Panels.

MarketWatch.com:             

• Grocery prices in July had largest price increase since 1979 — with one food staple rising by 38% on the year.
• Author Salman Rushdie on ventilator after New York stabbing.
• A dozen eggs cost 38% more than a year ago — due to avian flu, the war in Ukraine, a rise in farming costs, and more.
• Sinema took Wall Street money while killing tax on investors.
  
• This 20% Nasdaq gain doesn’t mean we’re in a new bull market.  
• Walmart earnings: Can groceries, back-to-school sales help avert another profit warning?

NewsMax:  

• Ben Carson: CDC, NIH Reputation Damages 'Incalculable'.
• Rep. Mullin: 'Inflation Act' Leaves US Dependent on China.
• Rep. Van Drew: Biden Spending Bill Means ‘Pay More, Get Less’.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Liz Cheney’s Husband’s Law Firm Not Only Represents Companies Linked to China’s Military, the Firm with Close Ties to Democrats Represents Hunter Biden Too. 
• In Less Than 3 Weeks States Can Begin Destroying Their 2020 Election Evidence – It’s Time to Petition that These Records Be Kept.
• CDC Quietly Removes Statement that Says “mRNA and the Spike Protein Do Not Last Long in the Body” from Their Website.
• ABC’s Jon Karl Confronts Karine Jean-Pierre on Bidenflation Scam Bill: “Isn’t It Almost Orwellian? How Can You Call it the Inflation Reduction Act…?” (VIDEO). 
• Energy Sec. Granholm When Asked What Bidenflation Bill will Do to Help Americans: Installing an EV Charging Station in Your Home will Get You a Tax Credit (VIDEO).
• Brother of Marine Killed in Afghanistan Due to Biden’s Botched Withdrawal Commits Suicide at Memorial For Fallen Soldier.
• High Prices Pushing Californians to Shop for Necessities in Mexico: ‘You Gotta Take Care of Yourself’.
• WAYNE ROOT: Here are the Issues That Will Destroy Democrats in the Midterms. Unless GOP is Blind, Deaf, Dumb, or Complicit.
• Boston Children’s Hospital Creates Bizarre Video Promoting ‘Gender Affirming’ Hysterectomies for Kids.
• SPERRY: FBI Agents Involved in Trump Raid are Under Criminal Investigation by Durham For Abusing Their Power in Trump-Russia Probe.
• One Dead, 17 injured After Man Drives Through Crowd at Pennsylvania Fundraiser Then Murders Woman in Neighboring Community.
• FBI Seized Records Protected By Attorney-Client Privilege During Trump Raid, DOJ Refuses Trump Request for Special Master to Review.
• Movie on the 2020 Election is DEVASTATING – Release Date Is August 20 (Trailer Attached).
• CBS Mornings Blames Climate Change for the Increasing Number of Fat Kids (VIDEO).
• Muslim Extremist Who Stabbed Author Salman Rushdie 15 Times Pleads Not Guilty (VIDEO).
• Young Ukrainian with Criminal Record Who Killed Seven Biker Vets on Way to Charity Event in 2019 Found Not Guilty on All Charges.
• Kamala Harris Giggles About Mar-a-Lago Raid Then Complains About Attacks on Law Enforcement After She Promoted Paying Bail for BLM Police Haters.
• Alec Baldwin DID Pull the Trigger on the Set of ‘Rust’ Which Took Halyna Hutchins’ Life, According to FBI Analysis.

The Epoch Times:

• Hong Kong’s Q2 GDP Shrinks 1.3 Percent; Government Cuts 2022 Forecast.
• ‘They Can Do Audio, Video, Physical Surveillance on You 24H/365D a Year’: Rex Lee on Intrusive Apps.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 851,369 Reports(+2,712 from prior week) Through August 5th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 138.5 -3.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 71.75 -2.75 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.77 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,845.0 +36.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.72 +.32%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
• S&P 500 futures -.24%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.26%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (WEBR)/-.04
  

After the Close:

• (FN)/1.54
• (WWE)/.55
• (ZIP)/.21
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for Aug. is estimated to fall to 5.0 versus 11.1 in July.
  

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Aug. is estimated at 55.0 versus 55.0 in July.

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Wholesale Price report could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.