Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:             

• Russia Probes Car Bomb That Killed Daughter of Putin Ideologist.  
  
• China Covid Cases Jump By 2,200 on Tourist-Spot Flare Ups.
  
• Power Crunch in Sichuan Adds to Industry’s Woes in China.
• Singapore Warns Against ‘Foreign Actors’ as US-China Ties Fester.    
• Junk Nations Risk Muted Future for Debt Sales as Liquidity Dies.
• Indiana Governor Travels to Taiwan Amid Tense US-China Relations.
  
• Strike at Port of Felixstowe Set to Upend UK Supply Chains.  
• Biden, European Allies Discuss Iran as US Weighs Latest Proposal.  
• US Futures, Crude Drop as Fed Outlook Takes a Toll: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Extends Weekly Drop as Traders Weigh More Iranian Supply.
• US Crop Tour Set to Kick Off With World’s Food Reserves at Stake.
  
• Recession Fears Set to Split Stocks and Bonds After Summer Rally.
• Powell Can Reset Market Expectations at Jackson Hole.
• Opinion: Powell Will Face a Tough Audience in Jackson Hole.  
• US Mortgage Lenders Are Starting to Go Broke.  
• Musk Says Tesla Full Service Driving Price Will Rise to $15,000.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Pandemic Bolsters China’s Position as the World’s Manufacturer.
• Zelensky Warns of Russian Escalation as Putin Ally’s Daughter Is Killed.
• Railroad Regulator Turns Up Heat on Industry to Fix Shipping Delays.
• Time to Upgrade Your Old Phone? More Consumers Say, ‘Not Yet’.
• Canada Urges Farmers to Cut Fertilizer Emissions, Drawing Backlash.
• Amazon Among Bidders for Signify Health. 
• Miami Takes On the Socialist Model. Californians and New Yorkers flock here for relief from high taxes, crime and regulation. 
• Russian Mercenaries Project the Kremlin’s Power Far From Its Troubles in Ukraine.

Fox News:

• FIERY BLAST: Daughter of top Putin ally, Ukraine war mastermind killed in car bombing outside Moscow.
• Biden official mocked for touting solar panel discounts for middle-class families battling inflation.  
• Biden officials push electric cars on recession-weary Americans from their 'policy fantasyland': expert.
• 'Green' governance is new 'guise' for mercantilism, will lead to global instability: Heritage president.

CNBC:

• Disney CEO Bob Chapek again distances himself from Bob Iger with Disney+ pricing decision. 
• Elon Musk says Tesla will hike the price of FSD driver assistance software by 25% in September.
• The stock market shrugged at Biden’s tax on stock buybacks. It may regret that.  
• Wages are the hottest inflation source. Here’s what that means for the Fed and the markets. That wage data “freaked everyone out” at the Fed, according to Kim Rupert, managing director, global fixed income analysis for Action Economics. “They turned conscious of a wage-price spiral and that really impacted them, and threatened them, and got them on edge,” she said. The wage growth, and owners’ equivalent rent inflation, are the two factors that Rupert says are “really scaring the heck out of the Fed right now” even as other inflation data is moving in the right direction.

Zero Hedge:

• US National Institutes Of Health Ending Subaward For Wuhan Lab.
• Lawsuits Coming For Entities That Don't Change COVID Mandates After CDC Update: Lawyer.
• These Three Liberal-Controlled Cities Have Worst Post-COVID Downturn Rebounds.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Census Bureau Admits Overcounting 7 Blue States, Just 1 Red State.
• Morgan Stanley: Cash Looks "Relatively Attractive" Right Now.
• Lithium Prices Putting EV Producers Under Pressure.
• Inflation Is Quietly Stripping Us Of Our Private Property Rights.
• Baltimore On Pace For Possible Record Murders As Local NAACP Asks Governor To Deploy National Guard.
• "If You Gonna Be A Ho, Be A Real Ho": CPS Worker Fired After Telling 14-Year-Old To Become Prostitute.
• Judge Permanently Blocks Biden Oil And Gas Leasing Pause In 13 States. 
• The Return Of Peter Strzok: How A Fired FBI Official Is Making The Case Against Himself.
• Trading The Commodity Supercycle Intermission.
• Chang: China Is Preparing To Go To War.
• Zelensky Warns Of 'Nastier' Phase Of War As Russia Says Dugin Car Bombing Was A 'Contract Killing'.
• Wall Street Sees Another Big Commodities Rally In 2022.
• Saudi Arabia Sentences Leeds University Researcher To 34 Years In Jail For Social Media Posts.
• Did Friday’s move mean the bear is back?
• The World's Second Largest Cinema Chain Is Preparing For Bankruptcy.
• Europe's Latest Natural Gas Pipeline Plan Won’t Solve Its Current Crisis.
• Self-Driving Vehicles Could Be On Britain's Roads As Early As 2025.
• Biden Misled Public On Afghanistan; New GOP Report Finds.
• Finnish Prime Minister 'Party Girl' Submits To Drug Test Over Leaked Videos.
• Victor Davis Hanson: 'Civil War' Porn.
• Ex-FBI Agent Pleads Guilty To Destroying Evidence.

MarketWatch.com:            

• S&P 500 earnings are rising only because of strength in this one sector.
• Here’s what the big inventory problem for retailers looks like.
  
• Homebuyers enjoy newfound ‘bargaining power’ as sellers agree to repairs, accept lower down payments, and make other concessions.

NewsMax: 

• Rep. Pete Sessions: Wray Most Stop FBI Politicization.
• Rep. Meuser: US Slow to React to China's US Land Grab. 
• McConnell PAC Pumps $34M Into Oz Race Against Fetterman.
• Sen. Blackburn: Americans Fear 'They Can Do it to Me'. 

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• New NBC Poll Finds 74% of Americans Say Country is on Wrong Track, “Americans Are Angry, Disappointed And Worried” (VIDEO).
• DC Using Pandemic Relief Funds To Give Residents An Extra $1,000.
• Op-Ed: New DeSantis Plan to Help Struggling Police Officers Has 2 Huge Benefits.
• Dr. Robert W. Malone Files Lawsuit Against Washington Post for $50 Million For Defamation.
• 25-Year-Old Houston Astros Outfielder/Hitter Yordan Alvarez Leaves Game and Hospitalized Due to “Shortness of Breath”.
• New Jersey Continues Efforts to Erase Founding Fathers: Removes Jefferson From Elementary School Name.
• Biden Energy Secretary to Americans Struggling Because of Bidenflation: “You Can Get 30% Off the Price of Solar Panels” (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• US National Institutes of Health Ending Subaward for Lab in Wuhan, China.
• US and Taiwan Brace for Continued Chinese Military Threats as More International Leaders Visit Taiwan.
• ‘At Some Point You Will Forget Who You Are’: Xinjiang Concentration Camp Survivor.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 857,343 Reports(+5,974 from prior week) Through August 12th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.5 +.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 73.5 +1.25 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.77 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 42.74 +.47%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.6 +1.9%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
• S&P 500 futures -.54%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.62%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• (NDSN)/2.44
• (PANW)/2.28
• (ZM)/.93
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (TSLA) 3-for-1
• (NDAQ) 3-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia PMI report could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.