Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                      

• A $379 Billion Hole Emerges in Developing Nations’ War Chests.
• Flotilla of Diesel Ships Sails for Europe as Energy Crisis Looms.
• US Futures Fall, Stocks Pressured as Yields Climb: Markets Wrap.
• Five Vital Commodity Industries Are Buckling Under Energy Crisis.
• Stock Plunge in First Half of 2022 Hammered 401(k) Millionaires.
  
• AMC’s CEO Will Do Whatever It Takes to Keep His Company a Meme Forever.
• Tips for Backing Out of a Home Purchase.
• US Housing Cools Further With Fewer Starts, More Canceled Deals.  
• Apple Targets Sept. 7 for iPhone 14 Launch in Flurry of New Devices.  
• Penn to Buy Rest of Online Gaming Partner Barstool Sports.   
• Treasury Wine Profit Meets Expectations; Warns of Inflation Risk.  
• Snowboard Maker Burton Seeks Sale That Could be Valued at $800 Million.  
• Netflix’s Ad-Supported Plan Will Block Downloads of Shows, Films.

Wall Street Journal:    

• When Bill Gates Dines with Politicians......taxpayers beware!
• The American Academy of Pediatrics’ Dubious Transgender Science. As other countries turn away from hormones and surgery, the AAP won’t even allow a debate. 
• U.S. Veterans Race to Train Ukrainians as Marines; ‘Time Is Not on Their Side’
• U.K. Inflation Tops 10%, Highest of Rich Nations
• FDA Approves $2.8 Million Gene Therapy for Rare Blood Disease
• Mexican Gangs Go on Rampage, Challenging President’s Security Strategy.
• Oil Giants Must Face Climate-Liability Suits in States, Appeals Court Rules.

Fox News:

• CDC to be overhauled after director’s scathing admission about agency’s COVID response.
  
• Stuart Varney: Blue states followed CDC guidelines and paid the price.
• Lawyers school district over 'illegal' plan to layoff White teachers first.

CNBC.com:

• Fed sees interest rate hikes continuing until inflation eases substantially, minutes show.
• Bed Bath & Beyond shares fall after investor Cohen reveals intent to sell stake.
• ‘It’s frustrating.’ 40 million people are in the dark about student loan payments resuming.
• Crypto broker Genesis slashes 20% of workforce and announces CEO exit after loans soured.

MarketWatch:        

• Cisco earnings and revenue forecast quell fears of slowdown, stock rises.
  
• ‘Zombie’ stocks AMC and GameStop could feel the cash burn, says New Constructs.

Zero Hedge:

• Lindsey Graham Calls For Release Of Trump Affidavit: 'We’re Flying Blind'.
• Judge Blocks Texas Restrictions On Using P.O. Boxes For Voter Registration.
• Tomato Shortage Emerges In Drought-Stricken Californian As Ketchup Prices Soar
• Rational or "suckers" rally?
• Apple Reportedly Shifting Watch And MacBook Production To Vietnam.
• The Incredible Shrinking Merrick Garland.
• US stocks declined as global markets digested red-hot UK CPI data and the latest FOMC Minutes - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Is A Chinese Devaluation Imminent?
• Rugpull: After Stratospheric Gamma Squeeze, Ryan Cohen Files To Sell Stake In Bed, Bath & Beyond.
• FOMC Minutes: Anticipation For "Rate Increases" But Risk Fed Could Tighten "More Than Necessary"; Financial Conditions Already "Tightened Notably".
• Judge Orders Twitter To Provide Elon Musk With Executive Documents On Fake Accounts.
• "The West Is Really In Deep Trouble On Many Fronts – Many Self-Inflicted".
• UK inflation spike ignites risk aversion but dovish FOMC Minutes soften the blow - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Stocks & Bonds Dump As Short-Squeeze Ammo Runs Dry At Critical Technical Level.

Newsmax: 

• N.Y. on Hunt for 5,000 Hotel Rooms as It Grapples With Waves of Bused-In Migrants.
• Rep. Cammack: CDC Overhaul a 'Long Time Coming'.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Is Joe Biden Facilitating America’s Demise?
• BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: Trump Got’em – Huge Concerns About Peter Strzok Working for the CIA Are Likely at the Heart of Mar-a-Lago RAID
• Justin Trudeau Celebrates After Democrats Sign $700 Billion Spending Bill that Will Benefit Automobile Manufacturers in Canada.
• CDC Director Rochelle Walensky Admits Major Covid-19 Mistakes — Plans to Restructure the Agency Calling it a “Reset”.
• Double Vaxxed New Zealanders SEVEN TIMES Sicker this Year than Pre-COVID 2019! (VIDEO).
• Joe Biden Has Nothing on His Public Schedule Today and Hasn’t Done an On-Camera Interview with American Media Outlet Since February.
• Don’t Feel Sorry for Liz Cheney – She Increased Her Wealth by $36 Million After Serving Just 6.5 Years in Congress.
• Human Rights Attorney Leigh Dundas: ‘You Need To Teach Yourself To Be Disobedient,’ ‘The Brainwashing Needs To Stop,’ Or ‘We Are Going To Be Left With Klaus Schwab And The Tyrants’.
• Rank Choice Voting and Mail-In Ballots Debut in Deep Red Alaska. 
• 27-Year-Old High School Varsity Basketball Coach “Dies Unexpectedly” of Cardiac Arrest.
• Germany Electricity Benchmark Prices Surge over €500 for the First Time Ever — As Natural Gas Also Reach Record Highs.
• WAYNE ROOT: Seven Dead Doctors in 14 Days Don’t Lie.
  

The Epoch Times:

• States Warn BlackRock to Stop Pushing Political Agenda.
• China Increasing Nuclear Arsenal, With ‘Largest Military Buildup in History’: US Indo-Pacific Commander.

Breitbart:

• Nolte: 7 Reasons Pollsters Deliberately Lie to Us.

Twitter: 

• @EvaVlaar - “From a reanalysis of Pfizer’s and Moderna’s original trial data it appears that one was more likely to suffer a serious adverse event from the vaccine, than they ever were to be hospitalised from covid. This changes everything.” -  @DrAseemMalhotra (video)
  

 OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 854,081 Reports(+2,712 from prior week) Through August 5th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.25 +3.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 72.5 +1.0 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.28 unch.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,975.0 +19.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.6 +1.3%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.20%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.32%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BJ)/.81
• (EL)/.36
• (KSS)/1.12
• (NTES)/7.10
• (SPTN)/.55
• (TPR)/.77

After the Close:

• (AMAT)/1.79
• (ROST)/1.01
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 264K versus 262K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1450K versus 1428K prior.
• Philly Fed Business Outlook for Aug. is estimated to rise to -5.0 versus -12.3 in July.  

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for July is estimated to fall to 4.87M versus 5.12M in June.
• The Leading Index for July is estimated to fall -.5% versus a -.8% decline in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's George speaking, China Industrial Production report and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.