Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• Taiwan Braces for China Drills With Pelosi Set to Meet Tsai.  
• China's Covid Zero Could Last for Years Because It Works For Xi. What if the country stays closed indefinitely to keep the virus out?
• Opinion: Pelosi’s Taiwan Trip Is Only the Start of US Headaches.
• House Speaker's Roundabout Flight to Taiwan Shows China’s Long Reach.  
• This Is How China Could Hit Back Over Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit.  
• Alibaba and Tencent Face End of an Era as Sales Start to Shrink.
• Ripples From Pelosi Trip May Take Time to Impact Global Markets.  
• UK Already in Recession With Outlook for Stagflation.
• World's Food Supply Faces New Threat From Lack of Rain in India.  
• US Warns of Possible Retaliation After Killing of Al-Qaeda Chief.  
• Fed Views Boost Yields, Dollar as Haven Bid Ebbs: Markets Wrap.  
• Bullard Says Fed Can Slow Inflation Without Sparking Recession.  
• OPEC+ Watchers Don’t See Biden’s Call for Oil Heeded.
• Microsoft Donations to Anti-Abortion Groups Targeted by Activist.  
• Automakers Blitz Congress to Fix an EV Tax Credit They Can’t Use.
• Fed ‘Nowhere Near’ Finished With Inflation Fight, Daly Says.
  
• Obscure US-Listed China Stock Soars 520% as Retail Army Piles In. Company was the most-bought stock on Fidelity’s trading platform Tuesday.  Hong Kong-based financial services provider AMTD Idea Group surged as much as 520% Tuesday, triggering multiple trading halts, as small-time traders piled into the latest retail craze. The move follows a mega rally from its subsidiary AMTD Digital, which is up more than 21,000% from its mid-July initial public offering price of $7.80. At one point Tuesday, its market value rose above $400 billion, with the bulk of that coming from its Class B shares, which aren’t publicly traded. That’s bigger than Exxon Mobil Corp. and Walmart Inc., and comes from a company that reported $25 million in revenue last year. 
• It’s Far Too Risky to Assume That the Bottom Is In.

Wall Street Journal:    

• Arizona, Michigan, Missouri Primaries Headline Aug. 2 Contests.
• SoftBank Emerges as a Big Loser of the Tech Downturn. Again.
• Strike That Killed al Qaeda Chief Raises Tactical Questions.
• Pelosi Arrives in Taiwan, Defying China Warnings.
• The Schumer-Manchin Double Tax. The 15% minimum tax risks piling onto other global tax changes.
• The IRS Is About to Go Beast Mode. The Schumer-Manchin bill has $45.6 billion to audit the middle class. 
• Low-Income Nations Turn to Risky Bank Loans.
• Banks Spend Big to Boost Credit-Card Sign-Ups.

Fox News:

• Pelosi's husband had 'drug' in system, handed officers courtesy card after DUI crash: court records.
• Democrats confronted over Nancy's Taiwan trip after stoking war tensions.

CNBC.com:

• Rent prices are soaring in these 5 U.S. metros. Here’s what to know before moving to a cheaper area.
• China ratchets up military and economic pressure on Taiwan as Pelosi begins her visit.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: PayPal, Airbnb, Match Group, Caesars and more.
• Match shares plunge more than 20% after online dating company misses on revenue and forecast.
• Homeless, suicidal, down to last $1,000: Celsius investors beg bankruptcy judge for help.

MarketWatch:          

• Financial markets may see a 3-month string of 8.8% inflation readings starting next week, adding up to ‘bad news’.
  
• AMD stock slips as revenue forecast dips below Street consensus.  
• PayPal stock jumps 9% as company confirms Elliott stake and names EA exec as new CFO amid earnings beat.  
• MicroStrategy racks up $1 billion loss, says CEO will leave that post.  
• Airbnb stock falls sharply despite earnings beat, plan to repurchase $2 billion in stock.  
• Starbucks earnings beat expectations despite continued weakness in China.  
• Beyond Meat’s cash burn is putting the stock at risk of falling to $0, warns New Constructs.

Zero Hedge:

• China Summons US Ambassador Overnight, Says Washington "Must Pay The Price". 
• COVID Vaccine Injuries Quietly Being Compensated Around The World.
• Zoltan Pozsar: Powell Will Push The Economy Into A "Depression" To Curb Inflation
• Lot of moving parts....
• Oregonians To Vote On Gun Control Measure Opponent Calls "Strictest" In The Nation
• US Hits Iran With New Sanctions Targeting Oil Sales To East Asia.
• US stocks declined amid tensions surrounding Pelosi's visit to Taiwan and hawkish Fed rhetoric - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Beijing Looking To Buy Deep Water Port, WWII Airstrip In Solomon Islands.
• Robinhood Fires A Quarter Of Employees Via Slack; Reports Dismal Earnings One Day Early.
• The CBO Projects That By 2043, US Deaths Will Exceed Births.
• Stocks hit on US/China tensions and hawkish Fed speak - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• The market doesn’t think much about this…
• WTI Dips After Unexpectedly Large Crude Build.
• Navigating The Fourth Turning.
• It's Worse Than Anyone Wants To Admit.
•  "The Blood Is On His Hands": Giuliani Slams Soros After Billionaire Claims DAs Aren't To Blame For Crime Wave.
• Pelosi Plane & Powell's Pals Prompt More Market Mayhem.

Newsmax:

• China Vows 'Targeted Military Actions' as Pelosi Visits Taiwan.  
• House Repubs Who Voted to Impeach Trump Face Primaries.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Here We Go Again: Machine Failures Being Reported In Michigan.
• Teenage Pro-Life Activist Brutally Attacked While Knocking on Doors to Talk to Kansas Voters (VIDEO).
• Karine Jean-Pierre Has No Answer When Asked if Companies will Pass Cost of Biden’s Tax-and-Spend Bill to Consumer in Form of Higher Prices (VIDEO).
• EXCLUSIVE | Gen. Mike Flynn: ‘The Constitution Itself Is At Risk’, The Patriot Act Must Be ‘Constantly Reviewed’ Or ‘Removed’.
• FOX News Joins the Anti-Trump Uniparty Elites – A Case Study of How to Destroy Your Business.
• Biden Tested Positive For Covid Again— And His Cough is Back: White House Doctor.
• WHAT?! “Anyone Questioning, Challenging, PHOTOGRAPHING, Or RECORDING At Polling Places May Violate Federal Voting Rights Law” – Undercover Sheriff’s Deputies and Federal Thugs To Watch Arizona Primary Election For “Voter Intimidation”.
  

The Epoch Times:

• China Has ‘Positioned Itself to Take Further Steps’ Targeting Taiwan Amid Pelosi Visit, White House Warns.

USA Today:

• AMTD Digital stock, HKD, is the new GameStop thanks to Reddit's Wallstreetbets. 21,426% - that's how much AMTD Digital stock, traded under the ticker symbol "HKD", is up since its July 15 IPO.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 848,091 Reports(+2,483 from prior week) Through July 22nd, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 152.25 +5.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 88.25 +5.0 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.98 -.01%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,386.0 +108.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.4 +.2%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.49%.

• S&P 500 futures -.09%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.21%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ABC)/2.58
• (BWA)/.86
• (BCO)/1.19
• (CVS)/2.18
• (DISH)/.66
• (EXC)/.46
• (FDP)/.74
• (GNRC)/2.63
• (JLL)/4.30
• (MRNA)/4.49
• (REGN)/8.75
• (SMG)/1.72
• (TUP)/.22
• (UTHR)/4.54
• (YUM)/1.09
  

After the Close:

• ((ADTN)/.13
• (ALB)/3.21
• (ALL)/-1.15
• (BKNG)/17.59
• (WHD)/.36
• (CLX)/.93
• (EBAY)/.89
• (ETD)/.80
• (FTNT)/.22
• (IR)/.52
• (KLIC)/1.59
• (MRO)/1.28
• (MCK)/5.30
• (MELI)/1.85
• (MET)/1.45
• (MGM)/.33
• (PTEN)/.17
• (RCII)/.99
• (HOOD)/-.34
• (SFM)/.51
• (RGR)/1.50
• (TRUP)/-.03
• (WERN)/1.03

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for June is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +1.6% gain in May.
• ISM Services Index for July is estimated to fall to 53.5 versus 55.3 in June.
  

10:30 am EST:

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -797,860 barrels versus a -4,523,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,013,570 barrels versus a -3,304,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +739,860 barrels versus a -784,000 decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.43% versus a -1.5% decline prior.  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Services PMI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the (PGR) investor event could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.