Monday, November 22, 2021

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Fed Chair Powell's Reappointment, US Economic Optimism, Short-Covering, Commodity/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.0 +.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,051.0 +80.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.22 +.3%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.99 +.5%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.1 unch.
  • ISE Sentiment Index 115.0  -10.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .74 -6.3%
  • NYSE Arms .73 -47.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.85 +.34%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 394.28 -1.11%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.45 +.41%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 126.0 +5.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.86 -1.4%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 192.70 +2.7%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.48 +.31%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.75 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 12.25 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -30.75 -5.0 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  64.5 +.75 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.0 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 55.56 -.61%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 104.0 -5.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 96.80 USD/Metric Tonne +3.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.9 +2.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -43.6 +3.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -17.4 +1.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.62 -6.0 basis points
  • 97.5% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting, 78.6% chance of no change at March 16th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 201 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -6/100K people
  • 38% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -1.0 percentage point
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +56 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -19 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +18 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/transport sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 100% Net Long

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