Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Rising Long-Term Rates, US Dollar Strength, Alt Energy/Healthcare Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.9 +3.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,207.0 +41.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.98 -.33%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.1 +1.0%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.6 +1.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 155.0  unch.
  

• Total Put/Call .79 +5.3%

• NYSE Arms .79 -29.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.71 -.31%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 383.0 +1.6%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.40 +1.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 122.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 88.5 +.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 179.27 +.33%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.43 -.55%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.0 unch.
  

• TED Spread 11.5 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.25 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  65.25 +1.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 57.59 -.07%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 105.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 88.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.02%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.9 +5.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -49.5 -2.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -19.9 +7.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.77 +1.0 basis point
• 93.2% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting, 78.8% chance of no change at March 16th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 176 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +21/100K people
• 33% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +4.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -36 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +61 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -15 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  100% Net Long